人口收缩背景下东北三省市域经济与基本公共服务协调发展测度与驱动机制

Measurement and Driving Mechanism of Coordinated Development Between Urban Economy and Basic Public Services in the Three Provinces of Northeast China under the Background of Population Contraction

人口收缩背景下缩小城市经济发展差距、推进基本公共服务均等化并实现二者协调持续发展是实施区域协调发展战略的重要举措。运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数等方法测度分析了2010—2020年东北三省34个地级以上市域经济发展与基本公共服务协调度的时空特征,并对不同人口收缩类型市域进行差异性分析,运用地理探测器探析协调发展的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)市域经济发展与基本公共服务协调度呈上升态势但总体水平较低,协调度呈“南高北低”的空间格局;协调水平与经济发展水平、基本公共服务水平均呈现“人口增长型>轻度收缩型>中度收缩型>重度收缩型>严重收缩型”的发展演化特征。(2)协调度空间分异总体呈下降态势,人口增长型与严重收缩型、重度收缩型的组间差距较大,不同人口收缩类型市域组间差异是协调度空间分异的主要成因。(3)协调度的空间分异是由政府宏观调控、经济拉动、社会促进、科技支持等多元驱动机制综合作用的结果;主导因子为人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人均地方财政收入、地方财政一般预算内支出占GDP比重。

Narrowing the gap in urban economic development,promoting the equalization of basic public services,and achieving coordinated and sustainable development under the background of population contraction are important measures to implement the coordinated regional development strategy.Based on the entropy method,the coupled coordination degree model,the Dagum Gini coefficient,the geographic detectors and other method,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban economic development and basic public service coordination in the three provinces of the northeast China from 2010 to 2020,and studies its differences with different population shrinkage types and the driving mechanism of coordinated development.The results show that:1)The coordination degree between urban economic development and basic public services is on the rise,but the overall level is low,and the coordination degree shows a spatial pattern of"high in the south of northeast China and low in the north of northeast China".The coordination level,the economic development level and the basic public services level all show the development and evolution characteristics of"population growth type>mild contraction type>moderate contraction type>severe contraction typevery severe contraction type.2)The overall spatial differentiation of coordination degree shows a downward trend,and the gaps between the population growth type,severe contraction type and very severe contraction type are large,and the differences between different population shrinkage types was the main cause of the spatial differentiation of coordination degree.3)The spatial differentiation of coordination degree is the result of the comprehensive effect of multiple driving mechanisms such as government macro-control,economic pull,social promotion,and scientific and technological support.The leading factors are per capita GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents,per capita local fiscal revenue,and local fiscal general budget expenditure per GDP.