中国粮食生产韧性的时空格局及其影响因素

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Grain Production Resilience in China

粮食安全是国家安全的基石,在当前复杂多变的外部环境下,探索粮食生产韧性显得尤为重要。文章基于2004—2020年中国31个省份的面板数据,构建了粮食生产韧性综合指标,运用熵值法、标准差椭圆和地理探测器模型方法,分析了粮食生产韧性的空间格局和影响因素。研究发现:(1)2004—2020年,中国粮食生产韧性整体呈下降趋势,粮食生产抗风险能力不足。其中,中部、东部地区韧性水平较高,西部地区韧性水平较低,但整体皆呈下降趋势,只有东北地区韧性水平较为稳定。(2)城镇化率、科技因素和农业生产资料价格变动为影响粮食生产韧性的主要因素,各影响因子两两之间交互关系主要为双因子增强和非线性增强。最后,从统筹推进新型城镇化发展与粮食生产,积极构建新型的现代粮食产业体系,加快构建粮食产业发展新格局等方面提出了增强中国粮食生产韧性水平的政策建议。

Food security is the cornerstone of national security.In the current complex and volatile external environment,it is all the more important to explore the resilience of food production.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2018,this paper constructs a comprehensive index of grain production resilience,and analyzes the spatial pattern and influencing factors of grain production resilience using the entropy method,standard deviation ellipse and geographical detector model.The results shows that:1)From 2004 to 2020,the resilience of grain production in China showed a declining trend,and the ability of grain production to resist risks was insufficient.The resilience level was higher in central and eastern regions than that in western region,but the overall trend was downward,while the resilience level of northeast China was relatively stable.2)Urbanization rate,science and technology factors,and price changes of agricultural means of production are the main factors affecting the resilience of grain production.The interaction between the two factors is mainly two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement.Finally,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to enhance the resilience of Chinese grain production from the aspects of promoting the development of new urbanization and grain production as a whole,actively building a new modern grain industry system,and accelerating the construction of a new grain industry development pattern.