多情景下海南省旅游业的碳达峰与碳中和预测

Prediction of Tourism Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Based on Multiple Scenarios:A Case Study of Hainan Province

旅游业碳达峰、碳中和对于国家“双碳”目标实现和旅游业高质量发展具有重要意义。在测算2000—2020年海南省旅游碳源、生态系统碳汇的基础上,利用GDIM、蒙特卡洛模拟、情景分析法分解并预测海南省国内和入境旅游碳达峰路径,同时利用灰色模型、马尔可夫链预测旅游可分配碳汇,探索不同情景、不同客源市场下的旅游碳中和实现。结果显示:(1)2000—2020年海南省旅游碳排放和生态系统碳汇均呈增长态势,国内旅游碳排放和可分配碳汇比重逐渐上升,入境旅游碳排放比重下降且受疫情影响明显。(2)海南省国内和入境旅游碳排放的最大促增因素分别是旅游经济规模、投资规模,以绝对因素为主,促减因素分别是旅游经济碳强度、投资碳强度,以相对因素为主。(3)海南省国内旅游碳达峰时间分别为基准发展情景2035年、可持续发展情景2030年、低碳发展情景2026年,峰值分别为3470.74万t、359.02万t、326.84万t;入境旅游碳达峰时间为基准发展情景2035年,峰值7.38万t,其他情景已经达峰。(4)旅游可分配碳汇逐年增加,国内旅游可分配碳汇提高,入境旅游的降低;海南省国内旅游将在2044年全面实现碳中和,而入境旅游已经实现。研究旨在为优化旅游业低碳发展政策和推动海南省“双碳”进程提供参考依据,助力海南自贸港和国家生态文明试验区建设。

It is of great significance to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality of tourism industry for the realization of the national"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals"and the high-quality development of tourism industry.Firstly,tourism carbon emissions and ecosystem carbon sinks in Hainan Province from 2000 to 2020 were calculated.Then,GDIM,Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis were used to decompose and predict the carbon peak path of domestic and inbound tourism.Meanwhile,grey model and Markov chain were used to predict the allocated carbon sinks of tourism industry.Finally,based on the forecast results of tourism carbon emissions and carbon sinks,this paper explore the realization of carbon neutrality under different scenarios and different tourist markets.The results showed that:1)From 2000 to 2020,both tourism carbon emissions and ecosystem carbon sinks increased in Hainan.The proportion of domestic tourism carbon emissions and allocated carbon sinks in domestic tourism gradually increased,while the proportion of inbound tourism carbon emissions gradually decreased and was significantly affected by the COVID-19.2)The most important driving factors of tourism carbon emissions in domestic and inbound tourism are tourism economy scale and investment scale,which are absolute factors.While the factors contributing to the reduction of tourism carbon emissions are tourism economy carbon intensity and investment carbon intensity,which are relative factors.3)The carbon peak time of domestic tourism in Hainan is 2035 as the baseline development scenario,2030 as the sustainable development scenario,2026 as the low-carbon development scenario.The peaks under the three scenarios were 3470.74×10^(4)tons,359.02×10^(4)tons and 326.84×10^(4)tons respectively.The peak value of inbound tourism carbon emissions is at 7.38×10^(4)tons in 2035 under the baseline development scenario,while it has already peaked under other scenarios.4)The carbon sink that can be allocated to tourism increases year by year,the carbon sink that can be allocated to domestic tourism increases,while the carbon sink that can be allocated to inbound tourism decreases.Domestic tourism in Hainan Province will realize the carbon neutral goal in 2044,while inbound tourism already realize the carbon neutral goal.This study can optimize the low-carbon development policy of tourism industry,provide a reference for realizing the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals"in Hainan Province and help build the Hainan Free Trade Port and the national ecological civilization pilot zone.