长三角地区县域碳收支时空动态及碳平衡分区

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of County-Level Carbon Budgets and Carbon-Balanced Zoning in the Yangtze River Delta

碳收支核算及碳平衡分区对于推动区域生态环境协同治理、实现高质量发展具有重要意义。文章以长三角地区301个县级单元为研究对象,引入碳补偿率、碳平衡压力指数、碳生态承载系数和经济贡献系数等方法探究2000一2017年长三角碳收支时空分异与碳平衡分区,并提出以低碳发展为导向的碳补偿空间优化方案。结果表明:①长三角地区碳排放总体呈先急剧上升后高位波动的演变趋势,由2000年的5.6亿t增长至2017年的15.6亿t,区域碳排放差异程度呈缩小态势,高碳排放空间聚集性逐渐增强;②长三角地区植被固碳功能在抵消当地能源碳排放中发挥着重要作用,整体空间格局较为稳定,但空间异质性较大;③长三角地区碳平衡压力呈由中心向外围递减的变化态势,县域碳补偿率呈递减趋势,平均补偿率为68.5%,空间匹配较差;④基于碳平衡分析,将长三角地区空间划分为碳汇功能区、低碳经济区、低碳优化区、碳强度控制区及高碳优化区5类区域,并在此基础上提出长三角县级不同功能区差别化碳补偿空间优化方案和低碳发展策略。

Carbon balance accounting and carbon equilibrium zoning are of great significance in promoting regional ecological environment collaborative governance and achieving high-quality development.This article takes the 301 county-level units in the Yangtze River Delta region as research subjects.It introduces methods such as carbon offset rate,carbon balance pressure index,carbon ecological carrying coefficient,and economic contribution coefficient to explore the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon income and expenditure from 2000 to 2017 and carbon balance zoning in the Yangtze River Delta,and proposes a carbon offset spatial optimization plan guided by low-carbon development.The results show that:The total carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region showed a trend of first sharply rising and then fluctuating at a high level,from 560 million tons in 2000 to 1.56 billion tons in 2017.The degree of regional carbon emission difference is shrinking,and the spatial concentration of high carbon emissions is gradually increasing.②The vegetation carbon sequestration function in the Yangtze River Delta region plays an important role in offsetting local energy carbon emissions.The overall spatial pattern is relatively stable,but the spatial heterogeneity is relatively large.The carbon balance pressure in the Yangtze River Delta region shows a decreasing trend from the center to the periphery.The county-level carbon offset rate shows a decreasing trend,with an average offset rate of 68.5%,and the spatial matching is poor.Based on the carbon balance analysis,the space in the Yangtze River Delta region is divided into five areas:carbon sink function area,low-carbon economic area,low-carbon optimization area,carbon intensity control area,and high-carbon optimization area.Based on this,differentiated carbon offset spatial optimization plans and low-carbon development strategies for different functional areas at the county level in the Yangtze River Delta are proposed.