城市空间集聚性与居民生活碳排放相关性探索——基于全国110个城市数据的分析

CORRELATION BETWEEN URBAN SPATIAL AGGLOMERATION AND RESIDENTS'HOUSEHOLD CARBON EMISSIONS:AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DATA OF 110 CHINESECITIES

城市空间与居民生活碳排放之间存在紧密关系,已有文献较多通过密度、开发强度等指标探讨城市空间对碳排放的影响,但有关城市空间集聚性与居民生活碳排放关系的实证研究并不充分,空间集聚的城市是否低碳仍存在争议。基于全国110个大城市和中等城市的样本数据,通过城市形态结构、各类用地分布和社会经济要素3个层面12项指标表征城市空间的集聚特征,并对这些变量如何影响人均、地均碳排放量进行实证分析。研究发现:建设用地理查德森指数、网格分维数等形态结构集聚性指标与居民生活碳排放强度显著正相关;居住用地莫兰指数、商业服务业设施用地莫兰指数等用地分布集聚性指标与居民生活碳排放强度亦显著正相关;人口密度、住宅容积率等要素集聚性指标与居民生活碳排放强度显著负相关。因此,向心聚集、向内填充的城市形态结构及居住、商业等单类用地性质在空间上的集聚分布不利于城市低碳化发展,疏解过度密集的城市中心、强化绿色开敞空间的丰富度,适度加强人口、住宅、产业等社会经济要素在空间中的高效集聚,具有显著的城市减碳控碳效应。

There is a close relationship between urban space and carbon emissions.Existing studies mostly discuss the impact of urban space on carbon emissions through indicators such as density and development intensity.However,the empirical research on the relationship between urban spatial agglomeration and residents'household carbon emissions is insufficient,and it is still controversial whether a city with spatial agglomeration is lowcarbon.Based on the sample data of 110 Chinese cities,this paper discusses the characteristics of urban spatial agglomeration through 12 indicators at three levels of urban morphological structure,land use distribution,and socio-economic factors,and then analyzes how these indicators influence carbon emissions per capita and per land.It is found that:(1)the morphological indicators,such as Richardson index and Grid fractal dimension,have a positive correlation with carbon emissions;(2)the land use indicators,such as Moran'I indexes for residential land or commercial land,also have a positive correlation;(3)the socio-economic indicators,such as population density and floor area ratio,have a negative correlation with carbon emissions.In conclusion,the centripetal,excessive compact urban morphological structure and the spatial agglomeration of a single land use type are not conducive to lowcarbon urban development,while the measures,such as decentralizing the excessively dense urban center,increasing the proportion of green open space,and moderately strengthening the intensive agglomeration of socio-economic factors,have a significant effect on reducing carbon emissions in cities.