基于筛查来源的淄博市乳腺癌患者时空分布特征分析

ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PATIENTS WITH BREAST CANCER DETECTED IN SCREENING IN ZIBO,CHINA

目的对基于筛查来源的淄博市乳腺癌患者时空分布特征进行分析,为科学防治该病提供科学依据。方法汇总淄博市2019—2021年35~64岁农村女性乳腺癌筛查数据,采用SPSS 19.0和Office软件对数据进行处理,采用ArcGIS 10.2软件和SaTScan软件进行趋势分析、空间相关性分析和时空扫描统计量分析。结果2019—2021年检出乳腺癌患者307例,2019、2020和2021年检出率分别为64.70/10万、73.87/10万、71.68/10万,3年平均检出率为70.62/10万,3年检出率比较差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=11.889,P<0.01)。2019—2021年3年乳腺癌平均检出率存在空间聚集性(Moran’s I=0.113,P<0.05),乳腺癌检出率由西南至东北走向逐渐降低,且向两侧逐渐递减,检出率较高的地区为博山区、淄川区和临淄区。2020年乳腺癌检出率变化趋势显著,在以22.39公里为半径涉及11个乡镇的中东部区域高度聚集。结论经筛查发现淄博市乳腺癌检出率中部高于南北两侧,应以此为依据,在今后一段时期内向乳腺癌检出率高的地区倾斜公共卫生资源。

Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of patients with breast cancer detected in screening in Zibo,China,and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and treatment of the disease.Methods The breast cancer data were pooled from women aged 35-64 years from the rural areas in Zibo who were screened from 2019 to 2021.SPSS 19.0 and Microsoft Office were used for data processing,and ArcGIS 10.2 and SaTScan were used for trend analysis,spatial correlation analysis,and spatiotemporal scanning statistical analysis.Results From 2019 to 2021,307 patients with breast cancer were detected;the detection rates in 2019,2020,and 2021 were 64.70/100000,73.87/100000,and 71.68/100000,respectively,with an average 3-year detection rate of 70.62/100000;there was a significant difference in the 3-year detection rate(χ^(2)=11.889,P<0.01).The average 3-year breast cancer detection rate from 2019 to 2021 was spatially aggregated(Moran’s I=0.113,P<0.05);the breast cancer detection rates showed a gradual decrease on both sides from southwest to northeast,with higher detection rates observed in Boshan District,Zichuan District,and Linzi District.The changing trend of breast cancer detection rates in 2020 was significant,with a highly aggregated trend in the central and eastern regions covering an area with a radius of 22.39 km involving 11 townships.Conclusion The screening finds that the breast cancer detection rate in Zibo is higher in the central area than in the northern and southern areas.This should be used as a basis for tilting public health resources towards areas with high detection rates in the future.