长江经济带发展战略促进了区域碳减排吗?——基于双重差分模型的检验

Does Development Strategy of Yangtze River Economic Belt Promote Regional Carbon Emission Reduction?:Tests based on Difference-in-Differences Model

碳减排是实现“碳中和碳达峰”目标的必要途径,长江经济带发展战略能否有效促进区域碳减排是亟待探索的待解课题。研究基于2010~2019年全国30个省份的面板数据,利用双重差分模型探究长江经济带发展战略对区域碳减排的影响及其传导机制。研究表明:(1)长江经济带发展战略能够显著促进区域碳减排,且经过多种稳健性检验,结论依然成立;(2)异质性分析发现,长江经济带发展战略的碳减排效应在长江经济带中、下游地区显著,而对上游地区不显著;(3)传导机制分析表明,绿色技术创新在长江经济带发展战略和区域碳减排间发挥中介作用,中介效应值为53.2%。

Carbon emission reduction is a necessary way to achieve the goal of“carbon neutralization and carbon peak”.Whether the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt can effectively promote regional carbon emission reduction is an urgent problem to be explored.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,the study uses a double difference model to explore the impact of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on regional carbon emission reduction and its transmission mechanism.The research shows that:(1)the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt can significantly promote regional carbon emission reduction.(2)Heterogeneity analysis found that the carbon emission reduction effect of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is significant in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,but not in the upper reaches.(3)The mechanism analysis shows that green technology innovation plays an intermediary role between the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and regional carbon emission reduction,and the intermediary effect value is 53.2%.