长三角区域绿色技术创新对工业二氧化碳排放影响的空间效应研究

Impact on Spatial Effect of Green Technology Innovation on Industrial Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Yangtze River Delta

绿色技术创新是推动区域高质量发展的重要途径之一。基于2011~2019年长三角区域41个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用ArcGIS空间分析和空间杜宾模型,分析了长三角区域工业二氧化碳排放和绿色技术创新水平的时空格局,并实证考察了绿色技术创新对工业二氧化碳排放影响的空间效应。研究表明:(1)工业二氧化碳排放量处于高位小幅波动上涨态势,呈现东高西低、北高南低格局,而绿色技术创新规模先缓后急逐年递增,呈现东高西低格局,且“反K字型”空间格局初现雏形。(2)绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响具有显著的空间传导效应,地理空间以及经济地理空间邻近城市的绿色技术创新水平的增加会促进本地城市的碳减排。(3)独立绿色技术创新在抑制工业领域碳排放方面成效显著,邻近城市绿色技术创新对本地城市工业碳排放的抑制作用大于本地城市的绿色技术创新对工业碳排放的促进作用。合作绿色技术创新因规模较小对工业碳减排效果不显著。深入探索长三角区域内部城市间在促进碳减排方面协同合作、联防联控机制并加强区域内部绿色技术协同创新网络建设是进一步推动长三角低碳绿色发展的着力点。

Green technology innovation is one of the important ways to promote regional high-quality development.Based on the panel data of 41 cities at prefecture level and above in Yangtze River Delta region from 2011 to 2019,this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of industrial carbon dioxide emission and green technology innovation level in Yangtze River Delta region by using ArcGIS spatial analysis and spatial Durbin model,and empirically examines the spatial effect of green technology innovation on industrial carbon dioxide emission.The results show that:(1)Industrial carbon dioxide emissions are at a high level,slightly fluctuating and rising,showing a pattern of high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south,while the scale of green technology innovation increases year by year,first slowly and then rapidly,showing a pattern of high in the east and low in the west,and the“anti K-shaped”spatial pattern has begun to take shape.(2)The impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions has a significant spatial transmission effect,and the increase of green technology innovation level of adjacent cities in geographical space and economic geographical space will promote the carbon emission reduction of local cities.(3)Independent green technology innovation has significant effect on restraining industrial carbon emissions.The restraining effect of green technology innovation from neighboring cities on industrial carbon emissions is greater than the promoting effect of green technology innovation in local cities on industrial carbon emissions.Cooperative green technology innovation has no significant effect on industrial carbon emission reduction due to its small scale.The key points to further promote the low-carbon green development of Yangtze River Delta are to deeply explore the coordination,joint defense and control mechanism among cities in the Yangtze River Delta region in promoting carbon emission reduction,and strengthen the construction of regional green technology collaborative innovation network.