长江经济带城市土地资源稀缺的演变特征及影响因素

Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Urban Land Resource Scarcity in Yangtze River Economic Belt

合理的土地要素配置是支撑长江经济带高质量发展的关键,而科学研判土地面临的稀缺瓶颈则是优化资源配置的重要前提。文章选取2008~2020年长江经济带108个地级市的面板数据,先后运用核密度估计法、GIS空间分析、空间自相关以及可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)系统考察了城市土地稀缺度的时空演变、空间差异以及影响因素,为实现长江流域土地资源支撑高质量经济和社会发展提供有益参考。结果表明:(1)研究时期内,长江经济带城市土地稀缺度呈现出“提速期”和“振落期”两个阶段,上中下游的具体增幅分别为26.9%、13.2%和9.5%;核密度估计结果表明,土地稀缺度的高值范围逐渐减少,中低值区域逐渐增多。(2)城市土地稀缺度存在正向空间相关性,局部空间集聚范围变化突出,但集聚效应并不显著。(3)不同区域影响城市土地稀缺度的主导因素存在一定差异。城市化水平、经济发展水平、人口密度、外商直接投资会加剧土地资源的稀缺,而产业结构高级化与环保水平的提升具有一定抑制作用。基于上述结论,长江经济带应因地制宜推动产业结构升级,加大企业环保投入力度,通过高效、可持续的利用土地以破除政策约束下的要素稀缺困境。

Reasonable allocation of land elements is the key to supporting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and scientific research and judgment on the bottleneck of land scarcity is an important prerequisite for optimizing resource allocation.This paper selects the panel data of 108 prefecture level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2020,and systematically investigates the spatial and temporal changes,spatial differences and influencing factors of urban land scarcity by using kernel density estimation,GIS spatial analysis,spatial autocorrelation and feasible generalized least squares(FGLS),It provides a useful reference for the realization of high-quality economic and social development supported by land resources in the Yangtze River Basin.The results show that:(1)In the study period,the urban land scarcity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt presents two stages of“acceleration period”and“vibration period”,with specific increases of 26.9%,13.2%and 9.5%in the upstream,middle reaches and downstream respectively;The results of kernel density estimation show that the high value range of land scarcity gradually decreases,and the low and medium value regions gradually increase.(2)There is a positive spatial correlation between urban land scarcity and the change of local spatial agglomeration range is prominent,but the agglomeration effect is not significant.(3)The leading factors affecting urban land scarcity in different regions are different.Urbanization level,economic development level,population density and foreign direct investment will aggravate the scarcity of land resources,while the upgrading of industrial structure and the improvement of environmental protection level have a certain inhibitory effect.Based on the above conclusions,the Yangtze River Economic Belt should promote the upgrading of industrial structure according to local conditions,increase the investment of enterprises in environmental protection,and break the dilemma of factor scarcity under policy constraints through efficient and sustainable land use.