中低收入国家国际债券困境:危害、成因及思考

International Bond Predicament of Low-and Middle-Income Countries:Risks,Causes and Reflections

21世纪以来,中低收入国家发行国际债券数量快速增加,在主权债务占比超过50%。由于国际债券利息高、期限短,付息费用成为发债国家债务困境的主要原因,多个国家发生债券违约或再融资困难现象,造成严重的经济社会动荡。通过定量与定性研究发现,债券发行激增与困境源于国际金融资本在发达国家经济低迷时积极推动发展中国家发行国际债券以获取高额收益,将缺乏发债经验与风险承受力的发展中国家引入高风险资本市场。在当前经济下行、美元加息等多重因素叠加冲击下,国际债券的风险被显著放大,国际债券筹资遭遇顺周期、集中到期、评级短视、资金用途不当等诸多挑战。国际债券困境的本质在于不顾发展中国家国情而使其过早过深地陷入国际资本市场,解决困境需要构建多元化、符合发展中国家现实的融资途径。

During the past two decades,the number of international bonds issued by low-and middle-income countries has grown rapidly,accounting for more than 50 percent of their sovereign debt.Due to the high interest rate and short term of international bonds,the interest payment becomes a major fiscal burden for the developing countries that issue bonds.Bond defaults or refinancing difficulties occur in many countries,causing serious economic and social turmoil.Through the quantitative and qualitative methods,the study finds that the surge of bond issuance and the debt burden mainly stems from the fact that Western investors encourage developing countries to issue bonds when the economic growth of developed countries is in a downturn so that they could obtain high returns.Thus,developing countries are often trapped in the high-risk capital market since the lack of experience in issuing bonds and managing risks.Because of factors such as the current economic downturn and US dollar interest rate hike,the risk of international bonds has been significantly magnified.The international bond market also faces many challenges like pro-cyclicity,concentrated maturity,short-sighted ratings and improper use of funds.The essence of the international bond predicament lies in the fact that developing countries are prematurely and deeply trapped in the international capital market regardless of their national conditions.In order to address the challenges,it is necessary to construct diversified financing channels that are in line with the reality of developing countries.