城镇化、经济增长对中国碳排放的非对称影响

The Asymmetric Impact of Urbanization and Economic Growth on China's Carbon Emissions

运用ARDL边界检验和成对格兰杰因果检验法分析城镇化、经济增长对二氧化碳排放的作用机理,并进一步采用NARDL估计方法实证检验城镇化、经济增长对中国二氧化碳排放的非对称影响。结果表明:城镇化、经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间存在长期稳定关系,城镇化、经济增长的短期和长期正负冲击对二氧化碳排放的影响均具有非对称性特征。长期看,我国城镇化率的提高会显著增加二氧化碳排放,城镇化率的降低有利于减少二氧化碳排放,但城镇化率的正向冲击要远大于城镇化率负向冲击带来的影响。我国人均实际GDP的持续增长为二氧化碳排放做出了积极贡献,但人均实际GDP的负面冲击会以更大强度推动二氧化碳排放量增加。此外,农村人口加速向城镇集中对二氧化碳排放的影响远大于人均实际GDP增加带来的影响,弹性系数分别为11.37和0.53。

This article uses ARDL boundary test and paired Granger causality test to analyze the mechanism of urbanization and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions,and further uses NARDL estimation method to empirically test the asymmetric impact of urbanization and economic growth on China’s carbon dioxide emissions.The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between urbanization,economic growth,and carbon dioxide emissions.The short-term and long-term positive and negative shocks of urbanization and economic growth have asymmetric effects on carbon dioxide emissions.In the long term,the increase in urbanization rate will significantly increase carbon dioxide emissions,and the decrease in urbanization rate will help reduce carbon dioxide emissions,but the positive impact of the urbanization rate is far greater than the negative impact of the urbanization rate.The continuous growth of China’s per capita real GDP has made a positive contribution to carbon dioxide emissions,but the negative impact of per capita real GDP will drive the increase in carbon dioxide emissions with greater intensity.In addition,the impact of the accelerated concentration of rural population in cities and towns on carbon dioxide emissions is far greater than the impact of the increase in real GDP per capita,with elastic coefficients of 11.37 and 0.53 respectively.