两岸关系中的美国因素:结构、单元与议题三层次分析

The American Factor in Cross-Strait Relations:A Three-Level Analysis from the Perspectives of Structure, Unit and Issue

美国因素对两岸关系具有不可忽视的作用。通过结构、单元与议题三个层次,尝试结合“战略三角”理论、人格结构理论与三方四角博弈理论对中国台湾问题中的美国因素予以逻辑呈现,运用形式理性的演绎,归纳美国因素在两岸关系发展中的角色与运作机理,可以发现:在美国与海峡两岸的“战略三角”中,美方总处于“枢纽”地位,其涉台政策偏好在于两岸“和平分离”;就突破现状而言,美方难以发挥建设性作用。从结构、单元与议题层次探讨两岸关系中的美国因素,有助于涉台研究视野从三角思维转向大两岸思维、从期待思维转向实力思维、从孤岛思维转向全局思维,以此把握两岸关系的进程。

The US factor has a significant role to play in cross-Strait relations.The study attempts to logically present the U.S.factor in the Taiwan,China question through three levels:structural,unitary,and issue levels,combining theories of"Strategic Triangle",Personality Stratification,and the Three-sided Four-party Game Theory,respectively,and to demonstrate the role and operation mechanism of the U.S.factor in the development of cross-Strait relations by applying formal rational deduction.The study finds that in"the strategic triangle"among the United States and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait,Washington is always in the"pivotal"position,and its policy preference concerning Taiwan lies in"the peaceful separation"of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait,and in terms of breaking the status quo,the U.S.side is unlikely to play a constructive role.By exploring the American factor in the cross-Strait relations from the levels of structure,units,and issues,it is helpful to shift the perspective of Taiwan related research from triangular thinking to cross-Strait thinking,from expectation thinking to strength thinking,and from island thinking to global thinking,in order to grasp the process of cross-Strait relations.