创新试点政策对经济增长的影响研究

The Impact of Innovation Pilot Policies on Economic Growth

将2008年出台的创新型城市试点政策作为一项外生的准自然实验,采用双重差分模型,考察创新试点城市政策对经济增长的影响效果。进一步地,采用异质性随机前沿分析方法,测算城市层面的全要素生产率,基于要素投入规模效应与生产率效应两个维度,就创新试点政策对城市经济增长的影响机制进行讨论。研究结果显示,创新型试点城市政策显著加速了地区经济增长,这一结论在经过多项稳健性分析后被证实是可靠的;创新型试点城市技术投资挤占生产性投资,导致投资数量下降,从而对经济增长产生消极影响,但是由于政策引致的技术创新却显著提升了全要素生产率水平。综合来看,创新型试点城市的生产率效应远大于投资挤出效应,因而总体上对经济增长表现出正的影响效果。

This study focuses on an exogenous quasi-natural experiment-the innovative pilot city policy(ICPP)issued in 2008-in order to investigate its impact on economic growth.To do this,the study employs a difference-in-difference model,measures the total factor productivity at the city level by using the heterogeneity stochastic frontier analysis method,and discusses the impact mechanism based on the two dimensions of factor input scale effect and productivity effect.The results indicate that the ICPP has significantly accelerated regional economic growth and that this effect holds after a robustness check.Moreover,the technology investment crowding out the productive investment in the pilot cities leads to a decrease in the investment quantity,which in turn has a negative impact on the economic growth.Nevertheless,the technological innovation caused by the policy significantly improves the total factor productivity.Overall,the productivity effect of the ICPP is far greater than the investment crowding-out effect,meaning it ultimately has a positive effect on economic growth.