北江流域石角水文站基于SPA的径流时间序列预测分析

Runoff Time Series Forecast Based on Set Pair Analysis in Shijiao Hydrographic Station of Beijiang River Basin

该文以北江流域石角水文站1971—2020年的径流资料为例,将集对分析法应用于径流时间序列预测中,结果表明基于集对分析的径流时间序列预测模型合理可行。集对分析方法较最近邻抽样回归模型预测精度更高,且原理简单、使用方便,研究成果可为北江流域开展防洪规划提供依据。

In this paper,according to analyze runoff from 1971 to 2020 of Sijiao hydrological station in Beijiang River,Set Pair Analysis is applied to forecast runoff time series.The results showed that the method of forecast of runoff time series based on Set Pair Analysis is feasible.In contrast to nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive model,the method based on Set Pair Analysis is more accurate,and the principle is simple,easy to operate.These results will provide a basis for flood control planning of Beijiang River Basin.