“双碳”目标下新疆能源、经济、环境动态关系研究

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Energy,Economy and Environment in Xinjiang under"Double Carbon"Goal

二十大报告中明确指出要积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和,新疆为了实现“双碳”目标正致力于推进能源消费结构从高排放向低碳化转变,研究能源、经济、环境三者关系对合理制定碳减排政策具有重要的意义。选取GDP、能源生产、能源消费、碳排放分别作为经济、能源、环境子系统指标,采用新疆2000-2020年数据构建新疆能源经济环境系统VAR模型,运用Granger、脉冲响应函数、方差分解对3E系统进行动态关系研究。结果表明:新疆经济系统与能源系统、经济系统与环境系统均存在双向Granger因果关系,能源系统与环境系统间存在单向Granger因果关系;新疆经济增长会促进能源消费、能源生产、碳排放量增加,能源消费量增加会抑制经济增长;新疆经济增长、能源生产是碳排放的主要影响因素。新疆应该积极调整产业结构,优化能源消费结构,制定合理碳减排政策,协调经济增长和碳减排之间关系。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out the need to actively and steadily promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In order to achieve the"Double Carbon"goal,Xinjiang is committed to promoting the involvement of energy consumption structure from high emissions to low carbon.Studying the relationship between energy,economy,and environment is of great significance for the rational formulation of carbon reduction policies.Select GDP,energy production,energy consumption,and carbon emissions as indicators for the economic,energy,and environmental subsystems respectively,using data from Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020,a VAR model of the energy economy and environment system in Xinjiang was constructed.Granger,impulse response function,and variance decomposition were used to study the dynamic relationship of the 3E system.The results indicate that there is a bidirectional Granger causality between the economic system and energy system,as well as between the economic system and environmental system in Xinjiang,and a unidirectional Granger causality between the energy system and environmental system;Economic growth in Xinjiang will promote energy consumption,production,and carbon emissions,while an increase in energy consumption will suppress economic growth;Economic growth and energy production in Xinjiang are the main influencing factors of carbon emissions.Xinjiang should actively adjust its industrial structure,optimize its energy consumption structure,formulate reasonable carbon reduction policies,and coordinate the relationship between economic growth and carbon reduction.