碳交易试点政策对中国工业碳全要素生产率的影响

The Impact of Carbon Trading Pilot Policies on China’s Provincial Industrial Carbon Total Factor Productivity

碳交易政策作为市场激励型环境规制手段,以实现低成本控制碳排放为目标。为评估碳交易试点政策对中国工业碳全要素生产率的影响,基于2005—2019年中国30个省份工业投入产出面板数据,采用DDF-GML指数测算并分析各省份碳全要素生产率指数及其分解项,通过双重差分法构建处理组和对照组,评估碳交易试点政策对中国工业碳全要素生产率的影响效果,并进行稳健性检验,进一步探究碳交易试点政策对中国工业碳全要素生产率的影响机制。研究结果表明:(1)中国30个省份工业碳全要素生产率呈现上升趋势,低碳技术创新是各省份工业碳全要素生产率增长的主要动力来源。(2)碳交易试点政策能有效地促进试点省份工业碳全要素生产率增长。(3)低碳技术创新及市场化是碳交易试点政策推动中国工业碳全要素生产率增长的两条主要路径。

The carbon trading policy,as a market incentive environmental regulation tool,aims to achieve low-cost control of carbon emissions.In order to evaluate the impact of carbon trading pilot policies on China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity,based on the industrial input-output panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019,this paper uses the DDF-GML index to measure and analyze the carbon total factor productivity index and its decomposition items of each province,and constructs a treatment group and a control group through the double difference method to evaluate the impact of carbon trading pilot policies on China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity,and conduct a robustness test.Further it explores the impact mechanism of carbon trading pilot policies on China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity.The research results indicate that:(1)The industrial carbon total factor productivity of 30 provinces in China is showing an upward trend,and low-carbon technology innovation is the main driving force for the growth of industrial carbon total factor productivity in each province.(2)The carbon trading pilot policy can effectively promote the growth of industrial carbon total factor productivity in pilot provinces.(3)Low carbon technology innovation and marketization are the two main paths for carbon trading pilot policies to promote the growth of China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity.