能—水关联模式下区域能源系统优化策略研究

Study on Optimal Strategies of Regional Energy System under Energy-Water Nexus

在全球能源及水资源危机的大背景下,两者之间的相关性与约束性特征日益突出,促进能源与水资源协调可持续发展成为区域能源系统规划的必然选择。考虑能源系统中存在的多重不确定性因素,提出基于双区间两阶段随机—模糊可信度优化方法,构建能—水关联视角下不确定性区域能源系统优化配置模型,并获得不同置信水平下的优化策略。结果表明:燃煤发电在电力供应中仍占据主导地位,燃气与新能源发电量将持续增加;水资源的合理配置与调控,能够促进电力结构调整。该模型可为形成资源节约、绿色高效的区域能源规划管理方案和政策提供决策支持。

In the context of global energy and water resources crisis,the correlation and constraint characteristics between two resources is increasingly prominent and promoting the sustainable development of energy and water resources has been the inevitable choice for regional energy system planning.To solve the uncertain factors of energy system,a hybrid interval two-stage fuzzy credibility constrained programming approach is developed.Based on it,an optimal regulation model for regional energy system considering energy-water nexus under uncertainty is formulated,which can afford multiple optimization strategies with different confidence levels.The results show that coal-fired power will play primary role in meeting tremendous electricity demand for a time.Besides,the power generation of natural-gas and new energy will continue to increase.Moreover,the control strategy of total water resources consumption would be an effective way to accelerate electric power structural adjustment.These findings could provide decision support for generating regional energy planning and management schemes under resource conservation.