摘要
Changes to the Earth’s climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potentialdistribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developingmanagement policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distributionrange of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) using past, current and future climate scenarios.Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis.Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and theninto Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipesunder future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmentalconditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distancemodels were better at modeling a species’ ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of thepredictive accuracy of these models.
基金
I would like to thank James K.Wetterer for providing raw data and two anonymous reviewers for providing insightful comments on earlier versions of this manuscript.Part of the work has been presented at the 2nd International Symposium of Integrative Zoology in Beijing(Dec,2007).
