基于最大熵模型预测小火蚁在我国的适生区

Potential geographical distribution of the little fire ant,Wasmannia auropunctata(Hymenoptera:Formicidae)in China based on MaxEnt model

小火蚁是中国内地新发现的重要外来入侵害虫,目前对该虫的传入来源和在我国的适生区范围尚不明确。为明确我国小火蚁适生区范围,有效防控该虫在我国的扩散和蔓延,本研究通过该虫全球已有的分布数据,采用最大熵模型对其适生区进行了预测。研究表明,最大熵模型预测小火蚁适生区精度较高。预测结果显示,我国小火蚁的潜在适生区主要分布于南方,其中,高适生区分布在台湾地区、海南、云南南部边境、广西西南局部、福建西南部、广东南部及其沿海地区。预测结果与该物种现有地理范围的生态条件一致。年降水量对小火蚁的适生性影响最大,理论年降水量为2040 mm时小火蚁分布的概率最高。随着全球气候变暖,未来我国小火蚁的适生区有向北扩大的趋势,但主要适生区还是以南方为主。

The little fire ant,Wasmannia auropunctata,is an important alien invasive pest newly discovered in China's Mainland,whose source of introduction and potential distribution remain unclear.This study aims to make accurate predictions of its potential suitable areas and effectively prevent and control its spread and damage in China.The maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to predict and simulate the suitable areas of this species by collecting its current distribution dada worldwide,and the prediction effect was evaluated.The results showed that the potential suitable areas for the little fire ant in China are mainly in the southern China.The highly suitable areas were distributed in Taiwan,Hainan,the south border of Yunnan,southwestern Guangxi,southwestern Fujian,and southern and coastal regions of Guangdong.The prediction results were consistent with the ecological conditions of its existing geographical range.The annual precipitation had the greatest influence on the adaptability of the little fire ant,and the theoretical optimal annual precipitation was 2040 mm.With global warming,there is an apparent northward shift in the distribution of the little fire ant in China,but mainly in south China.