双碳目标下电碳模型应用场景研究

Research on application scenarios of electricity-carbon model under "dual carbon" goals

2020年9月中国提出了争取2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的应对气候变化新目标,并在2021年提出2030年碳强度下降65%、非化石能源比重达到25%等中长期战略目标。目前电力行业是二氧化碳排放的主要来源,实现电力系统深度脱碳将是中国实现碳中和的关键,也是中国长期希望完成的能源转型任务,而建立统一规范的碳排放统计核算体系是“双碳”工作的重要基础。围绕电碳模型及其应用场景,梳理了不同电碳模型的计算依据、设计理念和优化方案,总结了电碳模型在“降碳”和“融碳”等具体场景的应用现状和指导意义,浅析了电碳模型在助力新型电力系统建设方面的存在的不足和建议,为我国电力行业降碳减排关键技术的发展提供参考。

In September 2020,China proposed new targets for addressing climate change,including achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,China also proposed medium and long-term strategic goals such as reducing carbon intensity by 65%and achieving a 25%share of non fossil fuels by 2030.The power industry is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions,while the deep decarbonization in power system is the key to achieving carbon neutrality,and also the core task for energy transformation in China.The establishment of a unified and standardized statistical accounting system on carbon emission is an important basis for the"dual carbon"work.The electricity-carbon model and its application scenarios,combs the calculation basis,design concept and optimization scheme of different electricity-carbon models are summarized.The application status and guiding significance of electricity-carbon model in specific scenarios,including"carbon reduction"and"carbon melting",are systematically discussed.We analyze the shortcomings and suggestions of electricity-carbon model in the construction of new power system,providing reference for the development of key technologies for carbon reduction and emission reduction in China′s power industry.