我国地方债最优阈值的分析与测算--基于资本回报率的视角

Analysis and Calculation of Optimal Threshold of Local Debt in China

文章基于2006—2020年我国30个省份的省际面板数据(港澳台及西藏地区除外),构建了面板门限回归模型,对全国和区域间地方债阈值进行分析与测算,并结合动态最优化的理论推导和生产函数法下对各省份资本回报率的匡算结果,得出研究结论:我国地方债存在最优阈值,使得地方债对经济增长存在非线性关系;最优阈值的大小与资本回报率正相关,我国东部地区资本回报率和债务阈值,均高于中西部和东北地区;从财政能力和地区经济发展实力等因素看,东部地区地方债对经济增长的正面和负面效应均小于中西部和东北地区。本文提出如下建议:强化地方债务阈值管理和限额管理机制,积极探索扩大有效投资以提高投资回报,推动债务资金全方位、全过程和全覆盖的绩效管理机制建设。

Based on the inter-provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet),this paper constructs a panel threshold regression model,analyzes and calculates the national and inter-regional local debt thresholds.Combined with the theoretical derivation of dynamic optimization and the calculation results of the capital return in each province under the production function method,it is found that there is an optimal threshold for local debt in China,which makes the local debt have a nonlinear relationship with economic growth;the size of the optimal threshold is positively correlated with the capital return and the capital return and the debt threshold in eastern China are higher than those in the central,western and northeast regions;from the perspective of fiscal capacity and regional economic development strength,the positive and negative effects of local debt on economic growth in the eastern region are smaller than those in the central,western and northeast region.This paper puts forward the following suggestions:strengthen the local debt threshold management and limit management mechanism,actively explore the expansion of effective investment to improve investment returns,and promote the construction of an all-round,whole-process and full-coverage performance management mechanism of debt funds.