数字金融发展与农民增收——基于农民创业调节效应和门槛效应的视角

Digital Finance Development and Farmers'Income Increase:From the Perspective of the Moderating Effect and Threshold Effect of Farmers'Entrepreneurship

增加农民收入是加快推进乡村振兴的出发点和落脚点。文章以北京大学数字金融研究中心2011-2020年数字金融指标为基础,结合中国省级层面统计数据,对数字金融发展、农民创业和农民增收的作用机理进行了实证分析。结果发现:一是我国数字金融发展对农民增收具有显著促进作用。二是这种促进作用存在区域和产业结构异质性,数字金融发展及各个维度指标对农民增收的促进作用在东部和中部地区较强,在西部地区较弱,而在第三产业比例较高的区域,数字金融发展对农民增收的影响作用更为显著。三是在数字金融发展增收效应的作用机制中,农民创业具有正向调节作用,因此促进农民创业是数字金融发展实现农民增收效应的一个重要调节因素。四是数字金融发展对农民增收存在创业门槛效应,当农民创业率超过某个阈值时,促进作用相对于之前区间有明显增高,“数字金融发展—农民创业—收入增长”的作用机制得到验证。基于研究结论,文章提出了促进农民增收的相关政策建议。

Increasing farmers'income is the starting and ending point for accelerating rural revitalization.Based on digital finance indicators of the Digital Finance Research Center of Peking University from 2011−2020 and province-level datas in China,the paper conducts an empirical analysis on the mechanism of the role of digital finance development,farmers'entrepreneurship and farmers'income growth.The results show that:firstly,the development of digital finance in China has a significant role in promoting the growth of farmers'income growth;secondly,there is heterogeneity in regional and industrial structure in this promoting effect.The promoting effect of digital finance development and the dimensional indicators on farmers'income growth is stronger in the eastern and central regions,and the effect is relatively weaker in the western region,while in regions with a higher proportion of tertiary industries,the effect of digital finance development on farmers'income growth is more significant;thirdly,in the mechanism of the effect of digital finance development on income increase,farmers'entrepreneurship has a positive moderating effect,so promoting farmers'entrepreneurship is an important moderating factor for digital finance development to achieve farmers'income increase effect;fourthly,there is an entrepreneurial threshold effect of digital finance development on farmers'income,and when the level of farmers'entrepreneurship rate exceeds a certain threshold,the promotion effect is significantly higher than the previous interval.The mechanism of"digital financial development-farmers'entrepreneurship-income growth"has been verified.Based on the research results,the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to promote farmers'income growth.