重大突发事件冲击下产业出口竞争力的波动研究

Fluctuations of Industrial Export Competitiveness during Major Emergencies

本文以新冠疫情为例,基于全球价值链视角,从地域范围、冲击程度、持续时间等方面考察重大突发事件冲击下,代表性经济体各产业以实际有效汇率衡量的出口竞争力波动情况。实证结果表明:新冠疫情冲击总体上降低了相关经济体的产业实际有效汇率,并产生显著的产业链间大范围溢出效应。时间维度上,表现为由最初的以直接影响占主导逐渐转变为以通过产业链间接影响占主导;空间维度上,使用主要国际货币的美国、欧元区国家和日本的产业实际有效汇率显著下降。在35个经济体中,只有我国受到的由其他经济体疫情冲击引发的传导影响大于本国疫情冲击引发的影响,而美国受到的影响大部分来自于本国疫情的直接冲击。56个产业所受影响也具有差异性,运输与物流、建筑业、食品、能源、工业金属制造、医药产品制造业受冲击程度位于前列。研究结论为我国应对重大突发事件、优化产业结构布局、引领产业链提升等方面提供决策支持。

Using the Covid-19 pandemic as a natural experiment,this paper investigates the impact of major emergencies on major countries'industrial export competitiveness from the global-value-chain perspective.We focus on the geographic scope,extent,and duration of the impact,while the industrial export competitiveness is measured by the real effective exchange rate.The empirical results show that in general,the Covid-19 shocks not only significantly weaken the real effective exchange rate of local industries in our sample,but also produce significant large-scale spillover effects through industrial chains.In the dimension of time,it is characterized by a gradual change from the initial dominance of direct impact to the indirect impact through global value chains.In the spatial dimension,the industrial real effective exchange rates in the U.S.,Eurozone countries,and Japan that use major international currencies have dropped significantly.It is found that among the 35 countries in this study,only China experiences a greater net spillover effect caused by other economies than the impact caused by the domestic pandemic,while the U.S.experiences the impact mainly from the direct impact of the pandemic in its own country.In addition,the impacts on the 56 industries are different,of which the impacts on the transportation and logistics,construction,food,energy,industrial metal manufacturing,and pharmaceutical product manufacturing are at the forefront.The research conclusions have the potential to provide support for China's policy-making in response to major emergencies,including the optimization of the industrial structure and the improvement of local industries'position in the global value chain.