南海地缘经济合作的贸易促进效应研究——来自境外经贸合作区的证据

Study on Trade Promotion Effect of Geo-economic Cooperation in the South China Sea: Evidence From Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones

文章立足于地缘经济理论,借助1998~2018年南海周边国家(地区)数据,运用多期双重差分法细致考察了中国在南海周边国家(地区)设立境外经贸合作区的贸易促进效应。研究发现,境外经贸合作区的设立显著提高了南海周边国家(地区)的进出口贸易水平。机制分析表明,境外经贸合作区的设立能够通过提高当地的制度质量和基建水平,创造就业,从而促进双边贸易水平的提升。异质性分析发现,境外经贸合作区在经济发展水平较低的国家(地区)和存在伙伴关系的国家中的贸易促进效应更为明显,且重工业产业园区和综合型科技产业园区所产生的贸易促进效应更大。

Based on geo-economic theory and the data of the countries(regions)around the South China Sea from 1998 to 2018,this paper makes a detailed study of trade promotion effect of China's establishment of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones in the countries(regions)around the South China Sea by using multi-period DID method.It is found that the establishment of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones significantly improves the level of import and export trade in the countries(regions)around the South China Sea.The mechanism analysis shows that the establishment of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones can promote bilateral trade level through improving local institutional quality as well as infrastructure level and creating employment.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that trade promotion effects of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones are more significant in the countries(regions)with lower economic development level and in the countries with partnership relationship,and trade promotion effects generated by heavy industrial parks and comprehensive technology industrial parks are greater.