美国通货膨胀对中国国内市场价格的异质性影响研究

A Study on the Heterogeneous Impact of the Inflation in the United States on China’s Domestic Market Price

文章通过构建非线性Granger因果关系检验模型、收敛交叉映射因果关系检验模型和TVP-VAR模型,实证研究了美国通货膨胀对中国国内经济在不同发展阶段、不同类型行业的异质性影响。研究结果发现,美国通货膨胀对中国国内CPI和不同行业PPI具有显著的Granger因果关系影响,即中国现阶段面临着明显的输入型通货膨胀压力。此外,基于脉冲曲线结果发现输入型通货膨胀更多向生产环节传导,向流通环节传导较弱,且相比于样本初期输入型通胀的近期影响呈现上升态势。因此,宏观政策调控应把握好输入型通货膨胀传导的异质性特征,据此精准施策并实现“稳增长”和“防通胀”的双重政策目标。

This paper empirically studies the heterogeneous impact of the inflation in the United States on China's domestic economy at different stages of development and in different types of industries by constructing a nonlinear Granger causality test model,a convergent cross mapping causality test model and a TVP-VAR model.The research results show that the inflation in the United States has a significant Granger causality effect on China's domestic CPI and PPI of different industries,indicating that China is currently facing significant imported inflation pressure.In addition,based on the pulse curve results,it is found that the imported inflation transmits more to the production link and less to the circulation link,and the recent impact of the imported inflation shows an upward trend compared with the initial stage of the sample.Therefore,macro policy regulation should grasp the heterogeneous characteristics of the imported inflation transmission,so as to implement precise policies to achieve the dual policy objectives of"ensuring stable growth"and"preventing inflation".