2023-2024年中国宏观经济预测--兼论重塑消费增长动力的政策选择

China Macroeconomic Forecast 2023-2024:On Policy Choices to Reshape Consumption Growth Drivers

2022年,受严格的疫情防控措施和全球经济下行压力的影响,中国经济仅录得3.0%的增速,是自改革开放以来中国经济增速的第二低。展望2023年,中国经济将全面复苏,但仍然面临较大压力,扩大内需、重塑消费增长动力成为优先的政策选择。运用中国季度宏观经济模型,对2023-2024年中国宏观经济主要指标进行预测。结果显示,2023年,中国GDP增速预计达到5.96%。对住房贷款规模扩张和居民可支配收入增加进行的反事实模拟结果发现,居民可支配收入增加带来的居民消费改善要优于住房贷款规模扩张,对GDP的促进作用也更为明显。相比于提振住房消费,提高居民可支配收入将更有助于促进消费和经济增长。为此,要提振消费,扩大内需,应当将提高居民可支配收入作为先决条件;同时,应致力于完善公共服务体系,优化消费环境,控制居民部门继续“加杠杆”以及有针对性地实施财税政策。

China's economy registered a growth of only 3.0% growth in 2022,which is the second lowest since the start of the country's reform and opening-up.This can be attributed to strict COVID-19 prevention and control measures and the downward pressure on the global economy.Although the economy is expected to fully recover in 2023,it continues to face significant pressure.As a result,expanding domestic demand and reshaping consumption growth drivers have become the priority policy choices.This paper employs the China quarterly macroeconomic model to forecast the key indicators of the country's macroeconomic performance in the eight quarters spanning 2023-2024.The results reveal that China's GDP growth is expected to reach 5.46% in 2023.Furthermore,the paper conducts a counterfactual simulation on the expansion of the housing loan scale and the increase of residents'disposable income.The findings indicate that the increase in residents'disposable income has a greater impact on boosting consumption and driving economic growth than expanding the housing loan scale.Therefore,the paper recommends prioritizing the increase of disposable income to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand.Additionally,efforts should be made to improve the public service system,optimize the consumption environment,curb continued leverage of the household sector,and implement targeted fiscal and tax policies.