货币政策的自主性、有效性与经济金融稳定

Independent and Effective Monetary Policy and Its Impact on Economic and Financial Stability

本文试图对我国货币政策调控作一个框架性的描述,说明其中的基本逻辑和运行机制。利率政策和汇率政策首先要遵循市场经济规律,这是保持经济金融稳定运行并从宏观层面抑制系统性金融风险的关键。两类政策不是并列关系,利率是货币政策的核心和纲,汇率在利率政策影响下由市场形成。货币政策调控首先要将国内目标放在首位,并为实现国内目标选择利率等最优政策,其次需创造良好环境,使汇率由市场决定。遵循上述思路,在近年来全球主要发达经济体利率大幅变化的环境下,中国的货币政策没有简单跟随,而是坚持“以我为主”,自主性和有效性明显上升。在调控中充分考虑时滞等复杂因素,在做好逆周期调节的同时,注重跨周期调节和跨区域平衡,在收紧和放松两个方向都相对审慎、留有余地,货币政策始终运行在正常区间,实际利率与潜在经济增速大体匹配。近年来人民币汇率弹性显著增强,提高了利率调控的自主性,促进了宏观经济稳定,经济基本面稳定又对汇率稳定形成支撑,外汇市场运行更有韧性,利率和汇率之间形成良性互动。总体上,中国的货币政策调控一直是比较主动的,以相对平稳、成本更低的自主货币政策操作,保持了经济金融体系稳定,应对了来自内外部的多重冲击,实现了较好的调控效果,促进了经济高质量发展。

This article outlines the China's monetary policy framework, and describes its basic logic and operating mechanism. Firstly, interest rate and exchange rate policies should follow the market economy laws, which is the key to maintaining economic and financial stability and mitigating systemic financial risks at the macro level. Interest rate policy and exchange rate policy are not equally important, in which interest rate is the core of monetary policy and exchange rate is formed by the market. Secondly, conducting monetary policy should put domestic goals first, choosing policies such as optimal interest rates to achieve these goals, creating conducive financial conditions so that the exchange rate is mainly determined by the market. In the past five years, interest rates in major developed economies have changed dramatically, while China's monetary policy has not simply followed but adhered to the “domestic goals first rule”, becoming more independent and effective. There have been three times when China and US economic cycles were out of sync, and China's monetary policy adjustments were clearly differentiated from the pace and direction in US.China's monetary policy framework generally adheres to a prudent adjustments philosophy, which is keeping interest rate relatively stable at an appropriate level, and implementing moderate tighten and loosen policies in both direction. There are several considerations for choosing such method: Firstly, from a methodological point of view, the “stable” policy reflects the concept of cross-cycle adjustment and cross-regional balances, paying attention to not only the current effect but also the intertemporal and dynamic effects. When there is great uncertainty in the market, it may be better to implement policy tools conservatively. Based on China's experience, the most important thing is let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources. While monetary policy may have long-term complex aggregate and structural impacts on the economy, and the policy effect may have uncertainties and complex interactive effects, it's necessary to hold the perspective of cross-cycle adjustment and cross-regional balance in counter-cyclical adjustment. The interest rate would converge to the prior median value, and the benchmark for adjusting would incline to a more conservative way, both are actually the “golden mean” of monetary policy. Secondly, China's monetary policy has adhered to the “domestic goals first rule”, with the core objective of smoothing out short-term economic fluctuations against the cycle. It is necessary to maintain the correct direction of counter-cycle adjustments, and based on the requirements of cross-cycle adjustment and cross-regional balance to calibrate policies, so that the real interest rate is roughly equal to the potential economic growth rate, which in other words, meeting the “golden rule”. A flexible exchange rate formation mechanism has enhanced China's autonomy in monetary policy. The PBOC continues to deepen the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism: Firstly, strengthening market influence so that the RMB exchange rate be determined mainly by supply and demand, and only implement macro-prudential tools and capital control when necessary. Secondly, on the basis of not committing to the full convertibility of capital accounts, we give the public and enterprises as much freedom as possible to foreign exchange, while maintain the option of capital control in extreme cases. The central bank has basically withdrawn from normal intervention, and the flexibility of the exchange rate has increased significantly. It improves the autonomy of interest rate adjustments and promotes macroeconomic stability, and economic stability supports the formation of a relatively stable exchange rate in turn. In general, we have maintained the stability of the economic and financial system with a relatively stable and low-cost monetary policy, coped with multiple internal and external shocks, and achieved good policy effects.