中国森林资源变化趋势及龄组结构优化研究

Analysis of Changes in China's Forest Resources and Age Group Optimization

依据1973-2018年9次森林资源清查数据,分析了森林资源在覆盖率、龄组结构等方面的变化规律。根据中国的森林资源和人口背景,对适宜森林覆盖率进行了研究。针对森林资源龄组中幼化问题,构建了龄组优化模型,进行龄组结构推演并提出了可持续发展建议。结果表明:中国森林覆盖率呈稳步上升趋势,但宜林地面积有所下降,各期的森林资源龄组平衡率均低于0.8,龄组结构极不协调;以第9次森林资源清查人均森林面积0.16 hm^(2)为标准,中国适宜森林覆盖率为25.89%,31个省域中仅有15个省达到人均森林面积标准;中国森林理想龄组比例为幼龄林占16.00%,中龄林占21.33%,近熟林占16.00%,成熟林占30.67%,过熟林占16.00%。本研究构建的龄组优化模型可调控龄组趋于平衡,模型推演后的龄组平衡率可达0.85,该模型理论和结果可为中国森林资源管理提供参考,对促进中国林业高质量发展具有借鉴意义。

Based on the data from the first to ninth forest inventories from 1973 to 2018,this study analyzed the patterns of changes in forest resources in terms of cover and age group structure.According to the situation of forest resources and population in China,the suitable forest coverage rate was studied.In response to the problem of young age groups of forest resources,an age group optimization model was constructed,the age group structure was optimized,and development suggestions were made.The results show that China's forest cover is steadily increasing,but the area of suitable land for forest has decreased,the age-group balance ratio of forest resources in all periods is lower than O.8,and the age-group structure is extremely uncoordinated.According to the standard of 0.16 hm^(2)per capita forest area in the 9h forest resource inventory,the suitable forest coverage rate in China was 25.89%,and only 15 of 31 provinces reached the standard of per capita forest area.The ideal age-group ratio of China's forests were 16.00%in young forest,21.33%in middle forest,16.00%in near mature forest,30.67%in mature forest and 16.00%in overmature forest.The age group optimization model constructed in this study can regulate the age groups to tend to balance,and the adjusted age group balance rate can reach 0.85.The theory and results of this model can provide reference for forest resource management in China.