经济政策不确定性、企业货币政策感知与实业投资

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Corporate Perception of Monetary Policy,and Industrial Investment

本文首次利用企业年报文本数据构建了企业的货币政策感知指数,阐释企业对货币政策的积极感知能够弱化经济政策不确定性对企业实业投资的抑制效应。基于2009—2018年中国A股非金融上市公司数据的实证结果表明,当企业的货币政策感知较为积极时,经济政策不确定性对企业实业投资的抑制作用被显著弱化。本文进一步将货币政策感知指数分解为回顾和展望两个部分,发现货币政策感知的作用主要由反映企业未来预期的货币政策展望指数引致,而反映历史信息的货币政策回顾指数则没有显著影响。机制分析表明,货币政策感知主要通过实物期权与金融摩擦两种渠道影响企业投资行为;对于资产可逆性较低、外源融资依赖较高的企业,积极货币政策感知能更有效地抑制不确定性的负面作用。

In recent years,the Chinese economy has witnessed declining real GDP growth and sluggish investment by non-financial enterprises.To address this issue,the government has emphasized the importance of“stabilizing investment and expectations”.While the factors influencing corporate investment are extensively discussed,there lacks comprehensive analysis on how to alleviate the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on it.Amidst heightened policy uncertainty,central-bank communication has emerged as a non-traditional monetary policy tool capable of mitigating adverse effects and stabilizing expectations,thereby influencing corporate investment behavior and fostering macroeconomic stability.Over the past few years,the People's Bank of China has actively engaged in expectation management,employing communication strategies more frequently.But previous research rarely focused on the actual corporate perception of monetary policy.In light of these gaps,this paper constructs a perception index of monetary policy based on textual analysis of annual reports of listed companies.Using data from non-financial listed companies in China's A-share market from 2009 to 2018,empirical results reveal that a more positive perception of monetary policy significantly weakened the constraint of economic policy uncertainty on real investment.Furthermore,the effect of monetary policy perception is mainly driven by the prospective component,while the retrospective component does not have a significant impact.Mechanism analysis shows that monetary policy perception influences investment behavior through the channels of real options and financial frictions.This effect is particularly pronounced for firms with lower asset reversibility and higher reliance on external financing.Our study contributes in several ways.Firstly,by shifting the focus from the perspective of the central bank to that of firms,we provide a fresh perspective on expectation management,emphasizing the importance of understanding corporate reactions and behavioral changes in response to central-bank communication.This novel approach contributes to the literature on central-bank communication and its effects.Secondly,the corporate perception index allows us to incorporate time-fixed effects,enabling a more rigorous examination of the causality between uncertainty and corporate investment.Finally,our study sheds light on the mechanisms through which positive monetary policy perception influences investment decisions,providing valuable insights for policymakers on how to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy in times of great uncertainty.