碳交易政策的减排效应及空间溢出——基于SCM和S-DID方法的中国经验实证分析

The Emission Reduction Effect and Spatial Spillover of Carbon Trading Policies——An Empirical Analysis of China Based on SCM and S-DID

碳交易政策是我国目前应对全球气候变化问题的重要措施,但关于其减排效应是否显著、是否存在空间溢出等问题仍存争议。本文基于2005-2019年30个省市的面板数据,运用SCM与S-DID方法,定量分析了碳交易政策在试点省市所展现出来的政策效果与空间效应。研究发现:碳排放权交易政策有效推动了试点省市碳排放量的下降,具有显著的区域异质性,即中等发展地区的减排效应优于经济发展水平较高的区域。碳交易政策不仅能够降低本地区的碳排放量,还能够通过空间溢出效应促进临近地区的减排,而东部沿海地区间的减排空间相关性高于西部地区。同时本文结合全国碳交易体系与绿色“一带一路”建设,深度搭载中国绿色治理经验,提出相应的政策建议。

Carbon Emission Trading(CET)policy is an important measure for China to deal with the global climatechange issues,but there are still disputes over whether it's useful for emission reduction and whether there is spatial spillover.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities,this paper quantitatively analyzes the policy effects and spatial effects of carbon trading policies in pilot provinces and cities by using SCM and S-DID methods.The results show that:firstly,the carbon emission trading policy effectively promoted the reduction of carbon emissions in pilot cities;secondly,carbon trading policy effects have significant regional heterogeneity,and the emission reduction effect in medium-developed areas is better than that in areas with a higher level of economic development.Thirdly,carbon trading policy can not only reduce carbon emissions in this region,but also promote emission reduction in neighboring areas through spatial spllover effects.At the same time,the spatial correlation of emission reduction in the eastern coastal areas is higher than that in the western regions.Meanwhile,combined with the construction of the national carbon trading system and the green"Belt and Road Initiative",deeply integrated with China's green governance experience,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations,in order to provide theoretical basis and practical reference for promoting low-carbon development in China and the Belt and Road region.