内蒙古黑土区农作物种植结构演化影响因素

Influencing factors of crop planting structure change in the black soil region of Inner Mongolia

【目的】农作物种植结构表征了区域农作物的面积组成和空间布局状况。深入解析其时空演变规律及影响因素,对农业水土资源优化配置及区域粮食安全具有重要意义。【方法】基于遥感数据、地面调查和模型模拟等方法,获取了2015—2020年内蒙古黑土区主要作物种植情况及结构特征数据,利用丰富度指数等方法对研究区农作物种植结构时空演变规律进行解析,采用灰色关联法和熵值法量化了影响农作物种植结构的主导因素。【结果】(1)2015—2020年,内蒙古黑土区农作物种植类型以玉米、大豆、小麦为主,水稻、马铃薯及其他农作物占比较小。其中,玉米种植比例最大,各年占比均在50%以上。研究时段内,玉米和大豆种植比例均呈逐年增加态势,而小麦种植比例呈下降趋势。(2)研究区种植结构类型较为丰富,2020年丰富度指数达66.67%。近半数旗县以单一玉米型种植为主,组合型种植结构的旗县较少。(3)生产价格指数和降水是影响种植结构的主导因素,权重分别为0.457和0.350;气温、地形因素对农作物种植结构影响较小。【结论】粮食价格和种植收益直接影响了农户的种植意愿。因此,借助种植补贴等政策措施提高种植收益进而激发农户种植意愿,可能是内蒙古黑土区实现“减玉米增大豆”种植结构调整及黑土地保护利用的有效手段。

[Objective]Crop planting structure represents the area composition and spatial distribution of regional crops.It is of great significance to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and its influencing factors for the optimal allocation of agricultural land and water resources and regional food security.[Methods]Based on remote sensing data,ground survey and model simulation,this study obtained the planting and structural characteristics of main crops in Inner Mongolia black soil region from 2015 to 2020.The temporal and spatial evolution of crop planting structure in the study area was analyzed by means of richness index.Grey correlation method and entropy value method were used to quantify the main factors affecting crop planting structure.[Results](1)From 2015 to 2020,corn,soybean and wheat were the main crop types in the black soil area of Inner Mongolia,while rice,potato and other crops accounted for a relatively small proportion.Among them,the proportion of corn planting is the largest,accounting for more than 50% in each year.During the study period,the planting proportion of corn and soybean increased year by year,while the planting proportion of wheat decreased.(2)The planting structure types in the study area are abundant,and the richness index in 2020 is 66.67%.Nearly half of the counties were dominated by single corn type planting,while the counties with combined planting structure were less.(3)Production price index and precipitation were the main factors affecting planting structure,with weights of 0.457 and 0.350 respectively;Temperature and terrain factors had little effect on crop planting structure.[Conclusion]Grain price and planting income directly affect farmers’planting intention.Therefore,using planting subsidies and other policy measures to improve planting income and stimulate farmers’planting willingness may be an effective means to achieve the adjustment of planting structure and the protection and utilization of black land in the black soil area of Inner Mongolia.