低碳城市试点政策的碳减排效应

Carbon emission reduction effect of the low-carbon city construction pilot program

【目的】高质量建设低碳城市是应对气候变化、落实低碳发展理念与实现“双碳”目标的重要举措,因此考察低碳城市试点政策的碳减排效应意义凸显。【方法】本文运用2006—2019年中国216个城市面板数据,以第二、三批低碳城市试点作为一项准自然实验,基于倾向得分匹配倍差法(PSM-DID)并通过稳健性测试,多维度分析低碳试点城市建设对城市碳排放的影响,并采用中介模型考察低碳试点政策的影响机制。【结果】(1)与非试点城市相比,低碳试点政策显著降低了城市碳排放,且纳入平行趋势、安慰剂等稳健性检验后依然显著。(2)低碳城市试点均能通过提升城市绿色技术创新水平、调整产业结构和减少能源消耗量来发挥碳减排作用。(3)低碳城市试点碳减排效应具有显著异质性。碳减排效应在东部、中部城市和非资源型城市要强于西部城市和资源型城市。基于“胡焕庸线”视角下低碳试点政策对东南半壁城市的碳减排效应较西北半壁城市更为明显。【结论】本文从多维度评价第二、三批低碳城市试点的碳减排阶段性成效,有助于深化低碳发展理念、探索低碳发展路径,为未来更多城市系统性进行低碳城市建设提供借鉴。新形势下低碳城市建设应遵循因地制宜、因时而变,制定差异化与精准化路径促进绿色发展,为实现“30·60”碳达峰、碳中和目标奠定基础。

[Objective]The construction of high-quality low-carbon cities is an important measure to address climate change issues,implement the concept of low-carbon development,and achieve the“dual carbon”goals,Therefore,the significance of examining the carbon emission reduction effect of low-carbon pilot cities policy is prominent.[Methods]Based on the panel data of 216 cities in China from 2006 to 2019,this study used the second and third batch cities of the lowcarbon city construction pilot program for a quasi-natural experiment.Using the propensity score matching and difference-in-differences(PSM-DID)method and based on the robustness test results,this study analyzed the impact of low-carbon city construction on urban carbon emissions in multiple dimensions,and it used an mediation effect model to investigate the mechanism of impact of the low-carbon pilot program.[Results](1)Compared with non-pilot cities,low-carbon pilot program participating cities significantly reduced urban carbon emissions,which remained significant after the inclusion of parallel trends and placebo robustness tests.(2)The low-carbon city pilot program can play a role in carbon reduction by improving the level of urban green technology innovation,adjusting industrial structure,and reducing energy consumption.(3)The carbon emission reduction effect of the low-carbon city pilot program had significant heterogeneity.The carbon emission reduction effect in eastern and central cities and non-resourcebased cities was stronger than that in western cities and resource-based cities.The effect of the lowcarbon city pilot program on carbon emission reduction was more obvious in the cities to the south of the Hu Huanyong Line than in cities to the northwest of the line.[Conclusion]This study evaluated the phased effect of carbon emission reduction of the second and third batch cities of the low-carbon city construction pilot program from a multi-dimensional perspective,which will help deepen the understanding and explore the path of low-carbon development,and provide references for more cities to systematically build low-carbon cities in the future.Under the new situation,the construction of low-carbon cities should follow the local conditions and change with time,develop differentiated and precise pathways to promote green development,and lay the foundation for the realization of the“30·60”carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.