反事实与INUS理论对抢占问题解决之比较研究

A Comparative Study on the Solution of Preemption Between Counterfactual and INUS Theory

因果问题领域存在着道路不同的两种理论,刘易斯的反事实理论和麦基的INUS理论。反事实理论受到了抢占问题的诘难,刘易斯利用因果链标准作了回应,珀尔在反事实理论基础上的因果模型对抢占问题给出了解决方案,而斯特雷文利用INUS理论对抢占问题也给出了解答。本文基于结构的思想,利用刘易斯理论和INUS理论对抢占问题进行了分析,重新探讨了珀尔和斯特雷文的方法,通过这四者的比较研究得出:抢占问题的解决流程可以综合反事实和INUS两类方法,而因果的语境问题或许是解决抢占问题的另一种路径。

There are two theories with different paths in the field of causal problems,Lewis's counterfactual theory and Mackie's INUS theory.The counterfactual theory is heckled by the preemption problem.Lewis responds it with the causal chain criterion.Pearl's causal model based on the counterfactual theory gives a solution to the preemption problem,and Strevens uses INUS theory to solve the preemption problem.Based on the idea of structure,this paper analyzes the preemption problem by using Lewis theory and INUS theory,and re-discusses the methods of Pearl and Strevens.Through the comparative study of the four theories,it is concluded that the solution process of preemption can integrate counterfactual and INUS methods,and causal context may be another way to solve the preemption problem.