网络舆情反转事件中的衍生风险及其传导:类型划分与疏解策略

Derived Risks and Their Transmission in Internet Public Opinion Reversal:Type Division and Relief Strategy

网络舆情反转事件中伴随的信息控制行为,会通过控制信息接收者的信息解读和态度倾向,改变舆情事件的正常演化轨道,并在这一过程中激发出新的社会风险。归纳梳理2016—2022年发生的50起社会广泛讨论的网络舆情反转事件案例发现,网络舆情反转事件中的信息控制行为一方面以信息内容和认知框架为控制对象,另一方面信息控制行为衍生的社会风险可能向政治性领域和非政治性领域传导。根据分析结果,网络舆情反转事件可以以“信息控制方式”和“风险传导方向”为核心维度划分为“借力型”“失控型”“暗礁型”“危机型”四种类型。对四种类型展开具体分析后发现,网络舆情反转事件的演化过程同时伴随着社会风险的衍生、传导和积累过程,形成了“表层舆情+深层风险”的双重结构,不仅对社会秩序和政治稳定造成严重危害,同时也引发了民众的政治不信任惯性,并成为群体性事件的重要诱因。因此,改变网络舆情管控和风险管理分立局面、加强网络舆情中的风险管理过程,是防范化解网络舆情反转事件中的衍生风险及其传导现象的题中之义。一方面,公共部门要进一步加强信息传播监管和规范,提升自身的信息传播影响力和竞争力来消解信息控制行为;另一方面,公共部门要创造弹性刚性并存的舆论场域,积极回应舆情事件中的群体诉求来疏解风险能量的衍生和传导。

The information control behavior in internet public opinion reversal can change the evolutionary direction of public opinion events by influencing the interpretation and attitude of information audiences,during the process of which new social risks are stimulated.According to the inductive combing of 50 widely discussed cases of internet public opinion reversal that occurred in 2016-2022,it is found that information control behaviors in internet public opinion reversal on the one hand take information content and cognitive framework as the control objects,and on the other hand social risks derived from information control behaviors may be transmitted to political and non-political domains.According to the results of the analysis,internet public opinion reversal can be classified into"leveraging type","uncontrolled type","reef type",and"crisis type",with"information control mode"and"risk transmission direction"as the core dimension division.After analyzing the four types,it is found that the evolution of the internet public opinion reverse is accompanied by the derivation,transmission and accumulation of social risks,forming a dual structure of"surface public opinion+deep social risks",which not only causes serious harm to social order and political stability,but also triggers the inertia of people's political distrust and becomes an important cause of mass incidents.Therefore,changing the separation of internet public opinion control and risk management and strengthening the risk management process in internet public opinion is the key to preventing and resolving the derivative social risks and their transmission in the process of internet public opinion reversal.On the one hand,the public sector should further strengthen the regulation and standardization of information dissemination and enhance its own information dissemination influence and competitiveness to dissolve information control behaviors;on the other hand,the public sector should create a flexible and rigid public opinion field and actively respond to the demands of groups in public opinion events to ease the derivation and transmission of risk energy.