货币政策影响了民间借贷利率吗?--基于期限结构的经验证据

Does Monetary Policy Affect the Private Lending Interest Rates?--Empirical Evidence Based on Term Structure

民间金融作为正规金融的补充,是普惠金融的供给主体之一。已有文献分析货币政策对民间金融的传导效应,由于数据的可得性,极少分析其对民间金融市场分割的影响。基于2018―2020年共153615笔温州民间借贷数据,探讨货币政策对不同期限民间借贷利率的影响效应。研究发现:(1)宽松的货币政策总体会引导民间借贷利率下行,其中数量型货币政策对民间借贷利率存在负向影响效应,价格型货币政策对民间借贷利率存在正向的影响效应;(2)货币政策对民间借贷利率期限结构存在的影响,主要表现为对六月期及以上的民间借贷利率影响效应显著,而对一月期和三月期的影响效应不显著。同时发现,货币政策传导效应在六月期的民间借贷市场最大;(3)货币政策传导效应还受融资用途和担保方式的影响,并同样对六月期及以上民间借贷利率有显著影响,而对一月期和三月期的民间借贷利率影响不显著。

As a supplement of formal finance,private finance is one of the main suppliers of inclusive finance.Existing literature has analyzed the transmission effect of monetary policy on private finance,but due to the availability of data,there is little analysis of the impact of private financial market segmentation.Using the data collected from 153,615 private lending in Wenzhou from 2018 to 2020 to explore the impact of monetary policy on private lending interest rates with different terms,the findings are as follows.(1)The loose monetary policy will lead the private lending interest rates to decline.Quantitative monetary policy has a negative effect on the private lending interest rates,and price monetary policy has a positive effect on the private lending interest rates.(2)Monetary policy has an impact on the term structure of private lending interest rates,which is mainly manifested as significant effect on the interest rates of private lending with maturities of six months and above,but not significant effect on the one-month and three-month maturities.(3)The transmission effect of monetary policy is also affected by the use of financing mode,and also has a significant impact on the private lending interest rates of six months and above,but not on the private lending interest rates of one month and three months.