基于条件风险价值的灌区水质水量配置模型研究

Water quality and quantity allocation model of irrigation region based on conditional-value-at-risk

随着全社会用水需求不断增加,水资源利用冲突与矛盾加剧,水量与水质问题不容乐观。以赣抚平原灌区为例,在总结现有研究成果的基础上,引入条件风险价值理论,基于合作博弈建立水质水量配置模型,并从多个方面对模型效果进行了评估。结果表明:随着风险控制的置信水平提高,经济和社会效用升高,供水量增加,环境效用下降;随经济损失容忍度提高,经济和社会效用均降低,供水量降低,环境效用升高;考虑初始点的随机模型能够保证较多的总供水量、较高的经济效益和用水满足度;同时可在灌区的实际可供水量条件下,达到灌区缺水损失风险规避要求。研究可为水资源利用冲突管理提供参考。

With the increasing demand for water in the whole society,the conflict and contradiction of water resources utilization are intensified,and the problem of water quantity and quality are not optimistic.Taking Ganfu Plain Irrigation region as an example,on the basis of summarizing the existing research results,the conditional-value-at-risk theory was introduced,and a water quality and quantity allocation model was established based on the cooperative game theory,and the model effect was evaluated from many aspects.The results showed that with the increase of the confidence level of risk control,the economic and social utility increased,the water consumption also increased,while the environmental utility decreased.With the increase of economic loss tolerance,the economic and social utility decreased,the water consumption also decreased,while the environmental utility increased.The stochastic model considering the initial point can ensure more total water supply,higher economic benefits and more water satisfaction.At the same time,it can meet the risk avoidance requirements of water shortage loss in the irrigation area under the background of the actual water supply.The research results can provide a reference for conflict management of water resources utilization.