基于可变模糊集的黄河流域生态保护现状研究

Evaluation of Ecological Protection in the Yellow River Basin Based on Variable Fuzzy Set

黄河流域生态保护是黄河流域高质量发展的关键,生态保护现状的评价则是帮助评价对象找准改进和提升的方向。本文结合黄河流域的生态特点和高质量发展要求,从生态资源、环境状况、资源利用和民生状况四个方面建立了黄河流域生态保护评价指标体系,并基于生态保护评价中存在的模糊性和动态可变性,借助可变模糊集评价方法研究黄河流域九省份生态保护的现状。本文定义了各个评价指标的标准区间矩阵、可变范围评价区间矩阵以及M值矩阵,通过计算各指标值对于各级别的综合隶属度来反映各省份生态保护的现状。本文结果表明,黄河流域九省份中青海、四川和陕西生态保护等级处于一般偏良,宁夏处于较差偏一般等级,其余省份均处于一般等级,这与现实中青海、四川省生态环境状况良好,其余省份生态环境状况一般的情况基本一致。本研究不仅为黄河流域九省份生态保护的方向提供了建议,也从方法层面验证了可变模糊集方法的有效性和科学性。

Ecological protection is the key to the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin and the evaluation of ecological protection status can help the evaluation object find the direction of improvement.Combined with the ecological characteristics and highquality development requirements of the Yellow River basin,this paper establishes an ecological protection evaluation index system of the Yellow River basin from four aspects:ecological resources,environmental status,resource utilization and people’s livelihood;based on the fuzziness and variability of ecological protection evaluation,this paper studies the ecological protection status of nine provinces in the Yellow River basin with the help of Variable Fuzzy Set.Specifically,this paper defines the standard interval matrix,variable range evaluation interval matrix and M value matrix of each evaluation index,and then reflects the current situation of ecological protection in each province by calculating the degree of comprehensive membership of each index value to each level.The results of this paper show that among the nine provinces,Qinghai,Sichuan and Shaanxi are at an above-average grade of ecological protection,Ningxia at a belowaverage grade and the rest at an average grade.This finding is basically consistent with the reality that the ecological environment condition of Qinghai and Sichuan is good,and that of the other provinces is at an average level.The results not only provide suggestions for the direction of ecological protection in the nine provinces of the Yellow River basin,but also verify the validity and scientificity of the VFS from the methodological perspective.