地方政府预决算偏离影响因素研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析

Influencing Factors of Local Government Budget and Final AccountDeviation:Based on Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

研究地方政府预决算偏离的影响因素,探寻缩小地方政府预决算偏离的良方,有助于强化预算约束力。以2014—2018年我国31个省份为研究样本,运用模糊集定性比较分析法,从组态视角研究了地方政府预决算偏离的影响因素。研究结果表明,健全的预算审查监督管理制度,对实现收入及支出预决算低偏离均起到了关键作用;与支出相比,以审计监督为代表的内部监督因素对实现收入预决算低偏离具有更大程度的影响力;以财政透明度为代表的外部监督因素能够对实现支出预决算低偏离起到更大的作用。基于研究结论,进一步提出降低地方政府预决算偏离的政策建议。

Studying the influencing factors of local government budget and final account deviation and exploring the effective ways to reduce local government budget and final account deviation help to strengthen budget constraints.With China’s 22 provinces,4 municipalities and 5 autonomous regions from 2014 to 2018 as research samples,this study investigates the influencing factors of local government budget and final account deviation from the perspective of configuration by using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis.The research results indicate that a sound budget review and supervision management system has played a key role in achieving low deviations in income and expenditure budget and final account,and compared with expenditure,the internal supervision factors represented by audit supervision have a greater degree of influence on achieving low deviations in income budget and final account;and that the external supervision factors represented by fiscal transparency can play a greater role in achieving low deviations in expenditure budget and final account.Based on these research findings,policy recommendations for reducing local government budget and final account deviation are further proposed.