提高一般性转移支付的经济增长效应——基于所得税分享改革的准自然实验

Economic Growth Effect of Promoting General Transfer Payment:Quasi Natural Experiment Based on Income Tax Sharing Reform

2015年以来,中央政府出台围绕提高一般性转移支付比重的一系列政策。文章着力从经济增长视角阐释提高一般性转移支付占比的政策实践。理论机制发现,提高一般性转移支付直接扩大地方政府的可支配收入,增加公共支出,降低企业税负和增加企业投资,发挥公共支出的外部性,实现经济发展。基于丰富的各个政府层级的面板数据和2002年所得税分享改革的政策实验,经验证据发现,一般性转移支付占比提高1%,将有利于降低地方政府营业税收入占比,提高基础建设投资,进一步使得中西部地区的经济增长率提高0.21%。上述结论有利于阐释一般性转移支付的经济效应机制,厘清转移支付政策与政府收支间的作用机制,服务于我国现代财税制度的建设和新时期向高质量增长转型发展。

The central government has introduced a series of policies around increasing the proportion of general transfer payment since 2015,and this study focuses on explaining the policy practice of increasing the proportion of general transfer payment from the perspective of economic growth.It is found via the theoretical mechanism that increasing the general transfer payment directly expands the disposable income of local governments,increases public expenditure,reduces corporate tax burden while increasing corporate investment,gives play to the externality of public expenditure,and achieves economic development.Based on the rich panel data from all levels of governments and the policy experiment of income tax sharing reform in 2002,it is found via the empirical evidence that a 1%increase in the proportion of general transfer payment will help to reduce the proportion of local governments’business tax revenue,increase infrastructure investment,and further increase the economic growth rate by 0.21%in the central and western regions.The above conclusion is conducive to explaining the economic effect mechanism of general transfer payment,clarifying the action mechanism between transfer payment policies and government revenue and expenditure,and serving the construction of China modern finance and tax system as well as the transformation and development towards high-quality growth in the new era.