2019-2021年上海市浦东新区流行性感冒病例时空特征分析

Spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza cases in Pudong New Area,Shanghai,2019−2021

目的分析2019—2021年上海市浦东新区流行性感冒病例的时空分布特征,为控制流感暴发和流行提供参考依据。方法以街道为单位收集2019—2021年上海市浦东新区流感发病数据,采用ArcGIS 10.8软件作为数据管理和呈现平台,构建空间数据库,进行空间自相关分析,采用Sa TScan 9.6软件进行时空聚集分析。结果2019—2021年上海市浦东新区共报告流感病例10709例,流感年报告发病率分别为133.08/10万、42.63/10万、17.81/10万。2019、2020、2021年全局自相关Moran’s I指数分别为0.255、0.232、0.446,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);局部空间自相关探测到的高–高聚集区,以浦东新区北部主城区为主。时空扫描分析显示,Ⅰ类聚集区主要位于部分北部主城区、中部,聚集时间为2019年11月30日至2020年1月24日,相对危险度(RR)为19.92,对数似然比(LLR)为4878.07,P<0.01;Ⅱ类聚集区主要位于西北部,聚集时间为2019年1月12日至2019年5月3日,RR为5.57,LLR为1526.13,P<0.01。结论2019—2021年上海市浦东新区流感病例整体上呈现时空聚集性,部分北部主城区、中部为重点防控区域。

Objective To analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of influenza epidemics in Pudong New Area,Shanghai from 2019 to 2021 and to provide a reference basis for controlling influenza outbreaks and epidemics.Methods Influenza incidence data in Pudong New Area,Shanghai from 2019 to 2021 were collected by street.ArcGIS 10.8 was used as the platform for data management and presentation to construct a spatial database for spatial autocorrelation analysis,and SaTScan 9.6 was used for spatio-temporal aggregation analysis.Results A total of 10709 influenza cases were reported in Pudong New Area,Shanghai from 2019 to 2021,and the annual reported incidence of influenza was 133.08/100000,42.63/100000,and 17.81/100000,respectively.The global autocorrelation Moran's I indexes in 2019,2020,and 2021 were 0.255,0.232,and 0.446 respectively,which were statistically significant(P<0.01).Spatiotemporal scanning analysis shows that the typeⅠaccumulation area is mainly located in the north and middle,the aggregation time is from November 30,2019,to January 24,2020,and the relative risk(RR)was 19.92,the log likelihood ratio(LLR)was 4878.07,P<0.01,while the typeⅡaccumulation area is mainly located in the northwest,and the aggregation time is from January 12,2019,to May 3,2019,and the RR was 5.57,the LLR was 1526.13,P<0.01.Conclusion Influenza cases in Pudong New Area,Shanghai from 2019 to 2021 show temporal and spatial aggregation as a whole.It is suggested to strengthen prevention and control efforts and establish immune barriers in the north and central areas of Pudong New Area.