天津市人口结构与产业结构耦合协调度对碳排放影响研究

Effect of coupling and coordination degree between population structure and industrial structure on carbon emissions in Tianjin

随着“双碳”目标的提出,越来越多的学者对碳减排进行研究。基于天津市2005—2021年数据,首先采用熵值法构建人口结构与产业结构指标体系;其次,运用耦合协调度模型测算两系统耦合协调度;最后,利用向量误差修正模型,考察人口结构与产业结构共同变化时,两系统的耦合协调度变动对碳排放强度的影响。研究结果表明,2005—2017年人口结构与产业结构耦合协调发展水平呈现震荡下降态势,2018年达到最低点,2019—2021年呈现上升态势;两系统耦合协调度的提高对区域碳减排具有显著的正向影响。基于以上结论提出推动天津市人口结构与产业结构协调发展、实现区域碳减排目标的政策建议。

With the putting-forward of the proposal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals",more and more scholars have researched carbon emission reduction.Based on the data of Tianjin from 2005 to 2021,firstly,the index system of population structure and industrial structure is constructed with entropy method.Secondly,the coupling and coordination degree model is used to measure the coupling and coordination degree of two systems.Finally,with the mutual changes of population structure and industrial structure,the vector error correction model is used to investigate the effect of the change of coupling and coordination degree of two systems on carbon emission intensity.The results show that from 2005 to 2017,the level of coordinated development of population structure and industrial structure showed a fluctuating downward trend,reached the lowest point in 2018,and had an upward trend from 2019 to 2021.The improvement of the coupling and coordination degree between two systems has a significantly positive effect on regional carbon emission reduction.Based on the above conclusions,policy suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of Tianjin′s population structure and industrial structure and achieve regional carbon emission reduction goals.