基于系统动力学的城市天然气管道脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis of urban natural gas pipelines based on system dynamics

为保障城市天然气管道的安全运行,采用系统动力学方法构建城市天然气管道脆弱性评估模型。通过系统识别和梳理影响城市天然气管道脆弱性因素,建立城市天然气管道失效连锁事故演化模型;确定系统动力学仿真参数,建立城市天然气管道脆弱性系统动力学模型;改变管理系统、设备系统和人员系统的投入比,运用模糊综合评价和动态模拟,以暴露度、敏感度和适应度3个指标描述系统脆弱性变化情况,实现城市天然气管道脆弱性的动态分析。研究结果表明:城市天然气管道管理系统和设备系统对系统脆弱性影响程度相对较高,加大管理系统投入能够有效降低系统暴露度、提高系统适应度;加大管理系统与设备系统投入能够有效降低系统敏感度。研究结果有助于制定合理侧重的分配投入比,对降低城市天然气管道系统脆弱性具有一定的现实意义。

In order to ensure the safe operation of urban natural gas pipelines,a vulnerability assessment model of urban natural gas pipelines was constructed by using system dynamics method.By systematically identifying and sorting out the factors affecting the vulnerability of urban natural gas pipelines,the evolution model for failure chain accidents of urban natural gas pipeline was established.The system dynamics simulation parameters were determined,and a system dynamics model for the vulnerability of urban natural gas pipeline was established.Through changing the input ratio of management system,equipment system and personnel system,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and dynamic simulation were used to describe the system vulnerability with three indicators of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability,so as to realize the dynamic analysis on vulnerability of urban natural gas pipeline.The results show that the urban natural gas pipeline management system and equipment system have a relatively high impact on the vulnerability of the system.Increasing the investment in the management system can effectively reduce the system exposure and improve the system fitness.Increasing the input of management system and equipment system can effectively reduce the system sensitivity.The research results are helpful to formulate the allocation and input ratio with reasonable emphasis,and have certain practical significance to reduce the vulnerability of urban natural gas pipeline system.