海事事故文献计量分析

Bibliometric analysis on maritime accidents

为系统揭示海事事故的研究现状与趋势,基于603篇中文文献和1119篇英文文献,运用文献计量分析方法,探讨海事事故研究的年发文量、研究团队、研究主题、研究趋势和研究方向。研究结果表明:中英文文献的年发文量分别呈现直线型、指数型增长趋势;中文文献海事事故研究仍处于缓慢增长阶段,而英文文献海事事故研究已进入快速增长阶段;海事事故研究群体呈现出“小集中、大分散”的分布模式;已形成3个发文量较大的研究团队;海事事故研究主题侧重于事故宏观特征、事故致因与治理、事故后果等3方面分析;中英文文献的海事事故研究趋势分别表现为单一事故致因分析向耦合事故致因分析转变、单一事故后果分析向综合事故后果分析转变;分析海事事故时空演化特征、揭示船员健康对海事事故影响机理以及探究人为因素对海事事故严重性的影响将成为海事事故研究的重要方向。研究结果可为后续海事事故研究提供理论参考。

In order to systematically reveal the research status and trend of maritime accidents,the annual publication output,research teams,research themes,research trends and research directions of maritime accidents research were discussed through the bibliometric analysis method based on 603 Chinese literatures and 1119 English literatures.The results showed that the annual publication output of Chinese literatures presents a linear growth trend,while the annual publication output of English literatures presents an exponential growth trend.The research on maritime accidents in Chinese literatures is still in a slow growth stage,while that in English literatures has entered a rapid growth stage.The distribution pattern of“small concentration,large dispersion”is shown in the research teams of maritime accidents,and three research teams with relatively large publication output have formed.The research themes of maritime accidents focus on analyzing the macro characteristics,causes and governance,and consequences of maritime accidents.The research trend of maritime accidents in Chinese literatures is from single accident cause analysis to coupling accident cause analysis,while that in English literatures is from single accident consequence analysis to comprehensive accident consequence analysis.Future research is likely to focus on analyzing the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of maritime accidents,revealing the impact mechanism of crew’s health on maritime accidents,and exploring the impact of human factors on the severity of maritime accidents.The research results can provide theoretical reference for subsequent research on maritime accidents.