不同主体视角下极端暴雨灾害事件网络舆情演化研究

Research on the evolution of network public opinion of extreme rainstorm disaster events from the perspective of different subjects

为准确把握极端暴雨灾害事件舆情演化的一般规律,挖掘极端暴雨灾害事件中政府、媒体、意见领袖和网民4类主体的舆情演化特点,构建了基于共词网络的主题演化模型和基于情感词典的情感分析模型,以2019年“4·11”深圳暴雨事件为例,分析了不同主体关注内容、情感态度等变化过程及差异,提出了应对极端暴雨灾害事件网络舆情的管控策略。研究发现:4类主体的关注内容不同,情感态度差异显著;随着极端暴雨灾害事件的发展,各主体的关注内容、情感态度不断变化,除政府外,其他3类主体的关注点均滞后于事件本身的发展,负面情感主要集中在预警期和突发期,随后逐渐趋于中性;4类主体相互影响,政府在舆情演化中起主导作用,媒体是政府的跟随者,意见领袖对网民关注的话题更加敏锐。最后从舆情监测、舆情引导、信息公开、回应疏导等方面提出了极端暴雨灾害事件不同阶段的网络舆情管控策略。

In order to accurately grasp the general law of the evolution of public opinion in extreme rainstorm disaster events,and to explore the evolution characteristics of public opinion of the government,the media,Opinion leader and Internet users in extreme rainstorm disaster events,a topic evolution model based on the co-word network and an emotion analysis model based on the emotion dictionary were constructed.Taking the April 11,2019 rainstorm in Shenzhen as an example,the change process and differences of different subjects’concerns,emotional attitudes,etc.were analyzed,Put forward management and control strategies for network public opinion in response to extreme rainstorm disaster events.Research has found that the four types of subjects have different focuses and significant differences in emotional attitudes;With the development of extreme rainstorm disaster,the attention content and emotional attitude of all subjects are constantly changing.Except the government,the attention of the other three types of subjects lags behind the development of the event itself.Negative emotions are mainly concentrated in the early warning period and emergency period,and then gradually tend to be neutral;The four types of subjects interact with each other.The government plays a leading role in the evolution of public opinion.The media is the follower of the government,and Opinion leader are more sensitive to the topics concerned by netizens.Finally,from the aspects of public opinion monitoring,public opinion guidance,information disclosure,response facilitation and so on,the network public opinion management and control strategy for extreme rainstorm disaster events is proposed.