世界杯足球比赛制胜关键技战术指标探析——基于不同控球率情境的实证研究

On the Key Technical and Tactical Indexes of Winning the World Cup:An Empirical Study Based on Different Ball Control Rates

研究目的:为探索不同类型控球率足球比赛中技战术表现与比赛胜负之间的因果关系。研究方法:以2014和2018年世界杯足球比赛中非平局的比赛数据为样本,运用数理统计法等研究方法对控球率这一比赛情境进行实证研究,并探索低、高、均等控球率比赛的制胜关键技战术指标。研究结果:(1)世界杯足球比赛低、高、均等控球率对应的范围分别为:29%-44%、56%-71%、45%-55%。(2)不同控球率比赛中以下指标具有较高的区分度:射门、进入进攻三区、进入禁区、长传、长传成功率、中传、中传成功率、短传、短传成功率、角球、射门被挡、黄牌、犯规、解围。(3)不纳入控球率情境时,影响比赛结果的关键性指标为助攻、射正率、直接任意球进攻、黄牌、红牌;低控球率比赛中,影响比赛结果的关键性指标为助攻、射门、直接任意球进攻、进入禁区次数、抢断成功率;高控球率比赛中,影响比赛结果的关键性指标为助攻、射正率、黄牌;均等控球率比赛中,影响比赛结果的关键性指标为助攻和被抢断丢球率。研究结论:不同控球率足球比赛中技战术表现具有不同特征,控球率情境应当纳入足球比赛技战术分析体系中。一般线性模型和二元逻辑回归模型对三种不同控球率类型的比赛提供的建模信息,能够为足球从业者在赛前训练或比赛部署提供理论依据,为足球技战术分析提供新思路。

Objective:In order to explore the causal relationship between technical and tactical performance and game outcome in different types of ball control rate football games.Methods:Taking the non draw competition data of 2014 and 2018 World Cup football matches as samples,this paper makes an empirical study on the competition situation of ball control rate by using mathematical statistics and other methods,and explores the key technical and tactical indicators for winning the competition with low,high and equal ball control rate.Results:(1)the corresponding ranges of low,high and equal ball control rates in the world cup are 29%-44%,56%-71%and 45%-55%respectively.(2)In competitions with different ball control rates,the following indicators have high differentiation:shooting,entering the third attack zone,entering the restricted area,long pass,long pass success rate,middle pass,middle pass success rate,short pass,short pass success rate,corner,shot blocked,yellow card,foul and clearance.(3)When not included in the situation of ball control rate,the key indexes affecting the game results are assists,shooting accuracy,direct free kick attack score,yellow card and red card;In the game with low ball control rate,the key indexes affecting the game results are assists,shooting,direct free kick attack score,the number of entering the restricted area and the success rate of tackles;In the game with high ball control rate,the key indexes affecting the game results are assists,shooting accuracy and yellow cards;In the game of equal ball control rate,the key indexes affecting the game results are assists and tackled ball loss rate.Conclusion:the technical and tactical performance in football matches with different ball control rate has different characteristics.The situation of ball control rate should be included in the technical and tactical analysis system of football matches.The modeling information provided by general linear model and binary logistic regression model for three types of games with different ball control rate can provide theoretical basis for football practitioners in pre game training or game deployment,and provide new ideas for football technical and tactical analysis.