俄乌冲突与国际局势:回顾与展望(之二)

Russia-Ukraine Conflict and International Situation:Review and Outlook(Ⅱ)

俄乌冲突持续,给欧亚地区和整个世界秩序带来了巨大的不确定性和深远的影响。俄乌双方在冲突爆发后进行了六轮谈判,在技术性问题上有所收获,但没有取得实质性突破。国际上越来越多的国家劝和促谈,但美国希望通过这场冲突纾解内部矛盾,强化同盟体系,这是这场冲突发生与持续的重要原因。国际秩序进入动荡变革期,俄罗斯认为主权至关重要,自身在这一时期扮演重要角色,并且尝试在这一时期塑造新的国际格局分野,以形成有独特自我意识的文明与“俄罗斯世界”。俄罗斯的这些国际秩序观在一定程度上塑造着俄乌冲突之下的国际秩序。这场冲突还引发了大国能源博弈,对能源安全、粮食安全、全球经济复苏、国际金融体系稳定构成巨大冲击,也对能源转型、绿色议程产生消极影响。作为全球能源出口大国的俄罗斯在评估全球能源变局的现实与潜在影响的基础上,主动采取了一系列内外应对举措:在欧洲方向,继续维持对欧能源供应;在中东方向,重点拓展与能源大国的多样化合作;在亚洲方向,巩固能源出口的亚太传统市场,大力开辟新市场;在欧亚方面,布局构建统一的欧亚能源空间,重点强化欧亚大陆东端、北部方向的能源合作与开发。

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused great uncertainty and had far-reaching impacts on Eurasia and the entire world order.After the outbreak of the conflict,Russia and Ukraine have held six rounds of negotiations,gaining results on technical issues but no substantive breakthroughs.More and more countries are committed to promoting peace talks,while the United States hopes to ease its own internal contradictions and strengthen its alliance system through this conflict,which is an important reason for the occurrence and continuation of this conflict.The international order has entered a period of turbulent changes,when Russia believes that sovereignty is crucial and it plays an important role,trying to shape a new international pattern and to form a civilization and a Russian world"with a unique sense of self.To a certain extent,Russia's views of international order shape the international order against the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The conflict has also triggered an energy game among major countries,which has huge impacts on energy security,food security,global economic recovery,stability of international financial system,energy transition and green agenda.As a major global energy exporter,Russia,on the basis of assessing actual and potential impacts of global energy changes,has taken the initiative to take a series of internal and external countermeasures.In Europe,it continues to maintain energy supplies.In the Middle East,it focuses on expanding diversified cooperation with major energy exporters.In Asia,it consolidates the traditional Asia-Pacific market for energy exports and vigorously opens up new markets.In Eurasia,it aims to build a unified Eurasian energy space,focusing on strengthening energy cooperation and development in the east and north of the Eurasian continent.