一种考虑政府介入的SIR网络谣言传播模型构建及其仿真研究

Construction and Simulation of SIR Network Rumor Spreading Model Considering Government Intervention

当今,网络谣言的肆意传播对社会造成了较大的负面影响。本文通过建立政府介入的SIR网络谣言传播模型,较为准确地描述舆情发展情况,为谣言的治理提供了理论依据。本研究以经典SIR模型为基础,引入了政府介入因素,构建了一种改进的网络谣言传播模型,并使用MATLAB R2016a对模型进行数值仿真,再进一步通过控制变量法,分析政府在舆情发展的不同时期对网络谣言传播的影响。实验结果表明,政府的介入会对网络舆情的爆发时间、谣言规模等方面产生重要影响,能够较为准确地反映网络谣言传播趋势,为网络谣言的治理提供有价值的参考建议。

Today,the uncontrolled spread of online rumors has caused large negative impact on society.This paper provides a theoretical basis for the management of rumors by building an improved SIR model of online rumor propagation with government intervention to more accurately describe the development of public opinion.This study uses the classical SIR model as the basis,introduces government intervention factors,constructs an improved model of online rumor propagation,and uses MATLAB R2016a to numerically simulate the model,then further analyses the government’s influence on online rumor propagation in different periods of public opinion development through the control variables method.The experimental results show that government intervention will have an important influence on the outbreak time and rumor scale of online public opinion,which can reflect the trend of online rumor propagation more accurately and provide valuable reference suggestions for the management of online rumors.