近30年桂阳烟区气候资源及适宜性评价

Climate Change and Suitability Evaluation in Guiyang Tobacco-Growing Area in Recent 30 Years

为了研究桂阳烟区烤烟生产气候适宜性,以1991—2020年桂阳的逐日气象观测数据为基础资料,采用趋势分析、适宜性评价等方法,分析了桂阳烟区气候资源变化,烤烟种植的主要气候因子及烤烟气候适宜性的变化。结果表明:桂阳烟区气候因子年际间差异较大,大田各生育期均温显著升高,其中伸根期均温上升速率达0.128℃/a;大田期降雨量和大田期日照时数年际变化剧烈,但未通过显著性检验(P>0.05);气候适宜性的分析结果显示,桂阳烤烟生产主要限制因子是伸根期均温和大田期可用天数,均有向好趋势;成熟期均温和旺长期降雨量适宜度较高,但呈变差的趋势;桂阳烟区烤烟气候适宜性指数有所增加,但未通过显著性检验(P>0.05)。综上,近30 a桂阳烟区气候资源发生了较大变化,生产上必须趋利避害合理利用气候的变化,合理布置好烤烟生产物候期。

In order to explore the suitable climate for tobacco production in Guiyang tobacco-growing area,using the daily meteorological observation data of Guiyang from 1991 to 2020 as reference,the trend analysis and suitability evaluation methods were adopted to analyze the changes of climate resources,the main climate factors affecting tobacco planting and climate suitability for tobacco in Guiyang tobacco-growing area.The results showed that the annual difference of climatic factors in Guiyang tobacco-growing area was big,and the average temperature in each growth period of field increased significantly,among which the average temperature in root-extending period increased at a rate of 0.128℃/a;the rainfall and sunshine duration in the field period changed sharply year by year,but failed to pass the 95%significance test(P>0.05).Climate suitability analysis showed that the main factors affecting tobacco production in Guiyang were the average temperature in root-extending period and the available days in the field period,which had a positive trend;the average temperature in maturity period and the rainfall in vigorous growing period had high suitability,but showing a trend of deterioration;the climate feasibility index(CFI)of flue-cured tobacco in Guiyang increased,but failed to pass the 95%significance test(P>0.05).To sum up,the climate resources in Guiyang tobacco-growing area have changed greatly in recent 30 years.In production,we must make good use of the climate change and suitably arrange the phenological period of tobacco production.