基于阴性对照理论的未测量混杂因素控制方法

Statistical methods of unmeasured confounder control based on negative control theory

非随机对照研究中未测量混杂因素的控制极具挑战。阴性对照理论基于“阴性对照的检测结果必须阴性”的思想,在进行人群研究时,额外设置合适的阴性对照,将关联特异度的思想融入人群研究中进行未测量混杂因素的识别和控制。本文从统计学角度解析阴性对照理论控制未测量混杂因素的基本原理,详细介绍基于阴性对照理论的系列衍生方法:死亡率标准化校正法、校正P值法、广义双重差分模型以及双向阴性对照法,并结合代表性案例对其合理应用进行述评。阴性对照是识别、校正和控制未测量混杂因素的重要统计设计思想,是基于现实世界数据开展实效比较研究的重要方法。

Controlling unmeasured confounders in non-randomized controlled studies is challenging.Negative control theory is based on the theoretical concept that the test result of negative controls must be negative.Setting appropriate negative control incorporates the specificity of association into population studies for the identification and control of unmeasured confounders.This paper explains the principles to control unmeasured confounders using negative control theory from a statistical perspective.A detailed introduction of derived methods based on negative control theory is also introduced,including adjusted standardized mortality ratio method,calibrating P-value method,generalized difference-in-difference model and double negative control method.The reasonable application of those derived methods is also comprehensively summarized based on representative case studies.Negative control is an important statistical design to identify,revise and control unmeasured confounders and a valuable method for comparative effectiveness research based on real-world data.