河南省城镇化、碳排放与“三生”空间交互机制分析

Analysis of the interaction mechanism of urbanization,carbon emissions,and production-living-ecological space in Henan Province of China

以往对城镇化与碳排放关系的研究,通常强调“人”的作用,而忽视“人-地-碳”的耦合效果。为探索城镇化、碳排放与“三生”空间的交互机制,该研究基于DNA模型三级结构视角,构建城镇化、碳排放与“三生”空间耦合模型,并采用环境库兹涅茨曲线、Logistic方程和脱钩分析方法,对三者间存在的数量关系进行验证和分析,以揭示其交互机制。结果表明:1)人口与土地城镇化导致生态、生产、生活空间结构失衡,影响生态环境品质,表现出城镇化发展水平与碳排放水平严重负脱钩,伴随城镇化升级推进,生产、生活、生态空间将进一步融合,空间布局将趋于协调,严重负脱钩逐步向适度耦合转型,逐渐形成“人-地-碳”最佳耦合关系。2)河南省城镇化率与碳排放量间存在显著的倒“U”型曲线关系,两者脱钩状态表现出较强的阶段性,整体呈现“增长负脱钩向强脱钩转变,间歇性夹杂弱脱钩与增长耦合”的特点,并预测河南省将在2026年实现碳达峰,随后进入碳减排阶段。3)河南省“三生”空间总体呈现生产空间有序减少、生活空间稳步扩张、生态空间稳定发展的趋势,“三生”空间变化与碳排放相关关系表现为生产空间对碳排放的贡献增加,生活空间对碳排放的贡献减小,生态空间对碳排放的贡献基本稳定,由此提出空间布局应减缓生活空间扩张,提高生态空间占比增加碳汇,降低生产空间产生的碳排放。研究结果能够为区域新型城镇化建设、双碳战略实施提供定量参考和决策依据。

Carbon emissions in the process of urbanization are usually analyzed using industry,population,and economic factors.It is a high demand to consider the coupling space-time change of "human-land-carbon".In addition,the land can also serve as an important factor of production,leading to great impacts on carbon emissions.This study aims to explore the interaction mechanism among urbanization,carbon emission,and the " production-living-ecological " space.The spatial structure of the DNA model was first selected.The three-level structure was then taken as the theoretical basis.The spatial coupling model of urbanization,carbon emission,and "production-living-ecological" space was finally established using the environmental Kuznets curve and Logistic equation.The mechanism of interaction was also proposed similar to the molecular structure of DNA.Taking Henan Province of China as an example,the regression analysis was carried out to construct the curve of urbanization rate,carbon emission,and the curve of "production-living-ecological" spatial area change during 1980-2020.The Tapio decoupling coefficient and correlation test were used to analyze the quantitative relationship and correlation degree between carbon emission and the space area of "production-living-ecological".The quantitative relationship was verified for the environmental Kuznets curve between urbanization and carbon emission.The mechanism of action was also achieved among them.The results showed that:1) Population and land urbanization induced the imbalance of ecological,production,and living space structure,leading to the quality of the ecological environment.There was a serious negative decoupling between urbanization development and carbon emission level.The spatial layout was coordinated to gradually shift from the serious negative to moderate coupling,particularly with the advancement of urbanization upgrading,production,life,and ecological space in the further suitable integration.The optimal coupling relationship can be expected for the "man,earth,and carbon".2) The empirical results showed that there was a significant inverse U-shaped curve relationship between urbanization rate and carbon emissions.The decoupling state showed a strong stage,indicating the overall characteristics of "negative growth decoupling to strong decoupling,intermittent weak decoupling,and growth coupling".The carbon peak was predicted in 2026 and then entered the stage of carbon emission reduction.3) The comprehensive analysis showed that the "production-living-ecological " space shared a trend of the orderly reduction of production space,steady expansion of living space,and stable development of ecological space.The correlation analysis showed that the contribution rate of production space to carbon emission increased,whereas,the contribution of living space to carbon emission decreased,and there was a stable contribution of ecological space to carbon emission.Therefore,the space layout should slow down the expansion of living space,and then increase the proportion of ecological space and carbon sink,finally reducing the carbon emissions generated by production space.The finding can provide quantitative reference and decision-making on regional urbanization and dual-carbon strategy.